Thursday, March 3, 2011

Last minute Oscar predictions

Originally posted on 25 Jan 2011:


I've been meaning to get to these for ages, but in the final moments before this year's nominees are announced, let me take a stab at predicting the 83rd annual academy awards:

Best Picture:

The Social Network
The King's Speech
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Black Swan
The Fighter
127 Hours
Winter's Bone
The Town

Alternate
The Kids Are All Right

I decided the praise & multiple nominations for Winter's Bone and The Town trump long-time favourite frontrunner. I have also had to eat my words about The Fighter. It's so in.


Best Director:

David Fincher - The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Danny Boyle - 127 Hours

Alternates
The Coen Brothers - True Grit
David O'Russell - The Fighter
Debra Granik - Winter's Bone

(Argh! How could I vote against the Coens?! I just don't see any of the others missing. 127 Hours trumps because it is such a 'Director's movie'...)


Best Actress:

Anette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Leslie Manville - Another Year

Alternates
Julianne Moore - The Kids are All Right
Noomi Rapace - Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Manville has been a bit overlooked, but I'm putting my money her. I think the strength of her performance will come through.  Any of the 3 alternates would be awesome as well. 

There is also an outside chance that Hailee Steinfeld breaks out of the supporting catagory & steals the 5th Best Actress slot, but I'm not betting on it.



Best Actor:

Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Robert DuVall - Get Low

Alternates:
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Javier Bardem - Biutiful

Leonardo DiCaprio - Inception

Javier Bardem is out, although I wish he wasn't. Leonardo DiCaprio is a long long shot. Between Robert DuVall & Ryan Gosling it's neck on neck, but I'm going with the seasoned veteran in the less depressing flick... But I would be happier if it were Gosling.


Best Supporting Actress:

Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Alternates:
Mila Kunis - Black Swan
Barbara Hershey - Black Swan

Mila Kunis feels like such a sure thing right now, although she shouldn't, but I'm voting against her. Let's see.


Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Mark Ruffallo - The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Jeremy Renner - The Town

Alternates:
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

I'm pretty convinced of my 5, but if anyone is gonna break in, it's gonna be John Hawkes.


Best Original Screenplay:

Inception
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan
Another Year

Alternates:
Blue Valentine
The Fighter
Four Lions


Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
127 Hours
Winter's Bone

Alternates:
The Town
The Ghost Writer


Best Editing:

Inception
The Social Network
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter

Alternates:
The King's Speech
True Grit
Shutter Island
The Town

Shutter Island deserves a spot, but is too off the radar (since Editing is considered to be so closely linked to Best Director). Perhaps I am foolish to exclude The King's Speech, but these 5 make the most sense to me.


Cinematography:

Black Swan
True Grit
Inception
The Social Network
The King's Speech

Alternates:
127 Hours

How do you vote against 127 Hours? But who to exclude? Here, I think the class of The King's Speech will beat the flash of 127 Hours.


Best Art Direction:

Inception
Black Swan
True Grit
The King's Speech
Alice in Wonderland

Alternates:
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Shutter Island

Wish there was space for Shutter Island.


Original Score:

Inception
The Social Network
The King's Speech
127 Hours
Black Swan

Alternates:
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon


Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
True Grit
Shutter Island

Alternates:
Get Low
Made in Dagenham
Robin Hood


Best Make Up:

The Fighter
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Alternates:
Jonah Hex
Barney's Version


Best Visual Effects:

Inception
Tron: Legacy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Alice in Wonderland
Iron Man 2


Best Sound Mixing:

Inception
Black Swan
True Grit
127 Hours
The King's Speech

Alternates:
Tron: Legacy
The Social Network
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Toy Story 3


Best Sound Editing:

Inception
True Grit
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon

Alternates:
Black Swan


Best Animated Feature:

Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist

Alternates:
Despicable Me
Tangled


Best Foreign Language Film:

Biutiful (Mexico)
Life, Above All (South Africa)
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Outside the Law (Algeria)

Alternates:
Dogtooth (Greece)
Confessions (Japan)
Tambien La Lluvia (Spain)