Sum Up Film: Predictions

Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Last-minute Oscar predictions

Best Picture: American Hustle (Because Gravity / 12 Years splits the vote Day-Lewis / Nicholson style)
Best Director: Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave (Sasha Stone has a point - when it comes to Best Pic / Director splits, the movie everyone "likes" gets Picture, the film everyone "respects" takes Director)
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine (in the bag and overdue)
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club (he's earned it, made himself overdue in just two years, and was on TV being brilliant in True Detective through much of the voting period)
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle (this should be her first. She deserves it, but I would be thrilled if Lupita N'yongo takes it instead)
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club (they clearly love the film, what with upset nominations in screenplay and editing. Would be happy if Barkhad Abdi upset though)
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Editing: Captain Phillips
Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects & Original Score: Gravity
Costume Design & Production Design: The Great Gatsby (it would be kinda rad if Costumes went to American Hustle)
Make Up: Dallas Buyers Club
Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (upset: The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Documentary: The Act of Killing
Animated Feature: Frozen (although it should be The Wind Rises)
Original Song: Happy - Pharrell Williams - Despicable Me 2

I didn't see any of the shorts. Bummer.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Oscar Predictions: all the other categories

Originally posted on 25 Jan 2011:

Editing:

Editing is one of the more ‘important’ technical awards, because it is so closely tied to story-telling & therefore to Bes t Director, which – in turn – is closely linked to Best Picture.

How did we know for sure that The Hurt Locker was definitely beating the odds to win Best Picture (besides that nomination for Best Score)? When it beat Avatar in Best Editing.

With my frontrunner – Inception – out of the race, the most obviously well directed film is The Social Network. In fact, it likely deserves to win even if Inception was in this race. Brilliantly intercutting multiple timelines & thereby allowing character conversations in one scene to become narration in another, without being flashy, the editing enables David Fincher to tell a seemingly straight-forward story with a distinct and changing rhythm.

Although the other nominees are all strong, I don’t see how The Social Network can miss here, unless The King’s Speech does a proper sweep and steals editing. In my opinion, The King’s Speech is the weakest of the editing nominees, and it is the only category where it did not win the Guild Award (The Social Network did).

If The King’s Speech wins editing, we know it’s taking everything, including Director, Picture (and Supporting Actor?). If The Social Network takes editing, and there is every reason why it should, David Fincher’s chances at Best Director increase exponentially, but Best Picture still belongs to The King’s Speech.

Cinematography:

Being the latest nomination for unawarded genius & legend Roger Deakins, True Grit must win.

Set Design:

Anything other than Inception would be laughable. The sets are sensational & integral to the concept & plot.

But if The King’s Speech sweeps... it does have gorgeous sets... I think they’ll have the smarts to go with Inception, though.

(Interestingly, if Alice in Wonderland loses this one, it will be the first Tim Burton film to be nominated for Best Set Design without winning).

Oscar Predictions: Top 8 categories

Originally posted 22 Feb 2011:

Best Picture: Social Network vs The King’s Speech

This year’s Best Picture nominees cover 4 true stories, 2 literary adaptations, 2 fever dream visions & two very different ‘family’ films – one family-friendly animation that made grown men cry & one alternative-family indie.

But the race, without a doubt, comes down to The Social Network (TSN) & The King’s Speech (TKS).

Social Network picked up every single critic’s award & topped it off with the Golden Globe for Best Drama – an unprecedented winning streak that seemed to paving its path straight to the Oscar podium.

But then, along came the – arguably – more influential Guild Awards (made up of actual academy members from different technical branches) and uniformly turned the ship in favour of King’s Speech. The BAFTA’s, understandably, followed suit and fell all over King’s Speech before the Academy declared its love by nominating King’s Speech 12 times, in each conceivable category, to Social Network’s 8.

The very influential Director’s Guild also crowned Tom Hooper (TKS) director of the year over top seeded David Fincher (TSN).

What keeps the race interesting, however, is one last flash of hope for those in the TSN camp: According to Google Oscar Search Trends, since 2008 all 3 of the Best Picture winners - The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire & No Country for Old Men - have had an upward trend in Google search volumes in the last weeks leading up to the Oscar ceremony, as well as the highest regional interest from New York (in 2007, Best Picture winner The Departed had the highest regional interest from Massechusettes, unsurprising as the film is set in Boston).

This year, the film inspiring the most Google searches - with just days to go before the Oscars - is, appropriately enough, The Social Network. It sure would be one helluva exciting & trend-bucking race if the Google search trend holds up & The Social Network pulls back into first place in the final moments.

Last minute Oscar predictions

Originally posted on 25 Jan 2011:

I've been meaning to get to these for ages, but in the final moments before this year's nominees are announced, let me take a stab at predicting the 83rd annual academy awards:

Best Picture:

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Inception

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Black Swan

The Fighter

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

The Town

Alternate:

The Kids Are All Right

I decided the praise & multiple nominations for Winter's Bone and The Town trump long-time favourite frontrunner. I have also had to eat my words about The Fighter. It's so in.

Best Director:

David Fincher - The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan

Christopher Nolan - Inception

Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

Danny Boyle - 127 Hours

Alternates:

The Coen Brothers - True Grit

David O'Russell - The Fighter

Debra Granik - Winter's Bone

(Argh! How could I vote against the Coens?! I just don't see any of the others missing. 127 Hours trumps because it is such a 'Director's movie'...)

Best Actress:

Anette Bening - The Kids Are All Right

Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole

Leslie Manville - Another Year

Alternates:

Julianne Moore - The Kids are All Right

Noomi Rapace - Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Manville has been a bit overlooked, but I'm putting my money her. I think the strength of her performance will come through. Any of the 3 alternates would be awesome as well.

There is also an outside chance that Hailee Steinfeld breaks out of the supporting catagory & steals the 5th Best Actress slot, but I'm not betting on it.