Oscar - Main Categories

Best Picture:

This is an epic discussion. For once, it really will be a nail biter on Oscar night. Okay, it will probably be Argo, but I can't help hoping.

My full best picture breakdown will follow soon.

Best Director:

Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O'Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Anyone's guess. Had Ben Affleck nominated, he'd be your man, scooping up gold with Argo's unstoppable winning streak. Then again, had Ben Affleck nominated, he'd be the frontrunner, not the underdog, and his film arguably wouldn't be enjoying such an unstoppable winning streak. But then again, who knows? Even the British and the French awarded Argo over the other brilliant American films of 2012. Affleck being outside the race as he is, Best Director is wide open.

Let's presume Benh Zeitlin is the contender that's just happy to be there for his micro budget, breathtaking Beasts of the Southern Wild. That's one down.

David O'Russell seems the most lightweight contender, but his film has a fanatic support base that takes his quirky mental illness rom com very seriously indeed. It was fairly rapturously received by the Academy with not just nominations in the big four - Picture, Director, Editing and Screenplay - but every one of the four acting categories as well. His film is a strong contender for Best Actress and Supporting Actor and remains an outside threat for Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture - so a Best Director win is not out of the question. What he has going for him, other than an extremely popular film, is that, unlike Spielberg and Ang Lee, he has never won an Oscar and, unlike Haneke and Zeitlin, everybody knows and, surprisingly (given his notorious fallouts with Lily Tomlin and George Clooney), likes him. There could be a perception that he is due after not winning for The Fighter. What he has working against him is that every other director deserves it more. I just can't see Kathryn Bigelow being snubbed and David O'Russell winning. But stranger things have happened.

That leaves three distinguished directors at the top of their game: Spielberg, Ang Lee and Michael Haneke. Haneke would be the art house pick. He is a first-time contender with a respectable, distinct filmography whose film was a surprise hit with the Academy. His leading lady is a big threat to win Best Actress and he is all but guaranteed to win Best Foreign Language Film. There is no Oscar precedent for a Foreign Language Film actually winning Best Director (although they were fond of nominating Federico Fellini in the 60s and 70s), presumably cause it's hard to really notice the directing when you have to read all those damn words at the bottom of the screen. Technically The Artist was a french film, but not a language one, so it doesn't count. Haneke's films are also known to be cold and, while Amour isn't, it is uber sad, in a very detached, realistic way. 

Which leaves the more likely Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee. The Academy adored their films, adorning them with 12 and 11 nominations respectively. Both directors are previous winners who have lost Best Picture in legendary upsets. Both are also respected enough to warrant additional directing Oscars on their mantelpiece. With Argo the de facto Best Picture winner, however, both men would be winning detached Directing Oscars for the second time in their careers (Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan when Shakespeare in Love took Best Picture, and Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain while - shudder - Crash took Best Picture), which would be a curious distinction.

I favour Ang Lee for two reasons:

1. Spielberg has two previous wins - for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. If the Academy is going to give him a third Director gong, it will be because they love Lincoln. And if they love Lincoln that much, it would win Best Picture as well. But given the Argo situation, that won't be happening, so I just don't see Lincoln winning an isolated Director Oscar. That is weird logic, I know, but there it is.
2. Ang Lee has only one previous win, and it makes more sense for Life of Pi to win an isolated directing Oscar. Though it feels just a slight touch too lightweight to win Best Picture, it is an undeniable director's accomplishment - Lee balances epic spectacle with nuanced spiritual metaphors and gentle emotions and pulls off both with aplomb. His film is already likely to win 3 to 5 technical Oscars; adding Best Director to the list seems as plausible as anything, to me anyway.

Will win: Ang Lee

Should win: In this list? Probably Spielberg.

Could win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper are Box Office stars making good as legit Oscar Contenders, and are sure to secure good ratings for the Oscars Telecast. But neither hold a candle to Daniel Day-Lewis' landmark performance. That doesn't mean Bradley Cooper can't win. But I don't want to think about that. So let's move on.

Denzel Washington is a hugely accomplished actor turning in a great character study as a brilliant but reckless pilot struggling to face up to his alcoholism. In another year, he would be a strong contender to win. But even Denzel boozer redemption can't beat Daniel-Day Lewis channeling Abraham Lincoln.

Joaquin Phoenix is a sadly unpopular actor turning in a blazingly brilliant performance in a sadly unpopular film. His against-the-odds nomination (which should have been a slam dunk Day-Lewis threatener) is a testimony to the power of his performance, but sadly he's not currently likeable enough to give ol' Dan a run for his money.

Daniel Day-Lewis loses himself in his nuanced, gentle, funny, inspiring, unsentimental, intimate performance as probably America's greatest president since Josiah 'Jed' Bartlet. Even though this will be the THIRD Golden man Day-Lewis takes home (and remember how nearly he won for Gangs of New York), it seems nothing but logical to give him the prize. And although he has enjoyed a practically unbeaten winning streak so far, his win will still feel like a triumph rather than a bore. There is more than enough unpredictability elsewhere.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win: Bradley Cooper Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

An 85-year-old french woman, an indomitable 9-year-old, a bizarrely underappreciated Australian thesp and two rapidly rising stars battle it out for Best Actress.

Both Naomi Watts - as a real life Tsunami survivor and mother hanging on to life by a thread - and Jessica Chastain - transforming from a delicate, driven CIA operative to a fierce, relentless terrorist catcher over the span of ten years - should be strong contenders for the prize: Watts has been overlooked for years and Chastain has made herself impossible to ignore in the space of just 48 months.

Let's face it, though - Best Actress is now a two-horse race between the irresistible Jennifer Lawrence and the brilliant Emmanuelle Riva. With dozens of Critics awards to her name, a Golden Globe and the influential endorsement of the Screen Actors Guild, Lawrence has the clear edge to win for breathing new, unpredictable life and captivating energy into Tiffany, a typical tramp with a heart of gold. She's extremely funny, she's constantly surprising, and her emotional beats are genuinely touching. To add to that, Lawrence is young, hot, hard working and almost bizarrely level-headed (she took her parents to the SAG awards). She also owned the Box Office this year, headlining the Hunger Games franchise with another strong performance. Being likeable and owning the Box Office is a trick that worked wonders for Sandra Bullock just three ominous years ago, and Lawrence gives a better performance, although she has less industry cred. It also doesn't hurt having Harvey Weinstein backing your campaign.

But Emmanuelle Riva has an ace up her sleeve - simply the most breathtaking female performance of the year. She's been surprisingly overlooked in the awards race - sidelined by the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild in favour of hotter Frenchy Marion Cotillard - but those that have had the good sense to nominate her have also been smart enougn to let her win (with the exception of the Critics Choice Awards, who went with Jessica Chastain). The BAFTAs signalled her first victory directly against Lawrence and, sadly, she wasn't there to make an acceptance speech (a good speech does wonders for a campaign, and Lawrence gives great speeches). But BAFTA upsets are known for creating Oscar prescendents (see Marion Cotillard finally getting the edge over the great Julie Christie in 2008 or The Pianist suddenly becoming a real contender after winning big at the BAFTAs in 2003). The Oscars were one of the few awards bodies outside Europe to generously appreciate Amour with five nominations, so presumably enough Academy members actually saw Amour to know that no-one deserves it more than Riva. If they need more convincing, someone should mention that, if she wins, it will be on her 86th birthday and she will be handed the award by hugely charming frenchman Jean Dujardin. That's a better morning after story than Lawrence peaking at 22.

Will win: Emmanuelle Riva (I know I am voting against the odds, but what's the use of predicting the obvious?)
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence


Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Not since 1995 has this category been so hard to predict. That year, Brad Pitt had won the Golden Globe (12 Monkeys), Ed Harris the Screen Actors Guild (Apollo 13), Tim Roth the BAFTA (Rob Roy) and they all contended for the Oscar, which Kevin Spacey won (for his legendary performance in The Usual Suspects). The Academy made the right call and, to be fair, it was a plausible call after Spacey's good run with the Critics Awards.

This year, Christoph Waltz has the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, Tommy Lee Jones has the Screen Actors Guild, Phillip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, but nothing else, and is the only contender whose film isn't in the Best Picture race. Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro have no big wins (De Niro even lost the Golden Satellite, where Silver Linings Playbook cleaned out), but Arkin is the only acting nominee from the De Facto Best Picture frontrunner (and Screen Actors Guild ensemble winner) and De Niro is an Oscar veteren in a hugely popular film with more acting nominations than anything else.

For the first time in Oscar history, there is not a single first-time Oscar nominee among the Supporting Actor contenders, and - to up the stakes - each of these men have an Oscar on their mantelpiece already. Which makes for an interesting race.

Alan Arkin & Christoph Waltz are the most recent winners and, arguably, don't stray far from their previous winning roles. Waltz bested the strongly buzzed Leonardo DiCaprio to a supporting nod for Django, and it's easy to see why - he is the only sustainably likeable character in the film and has all the best dialogue (and he sure knows how to deliver Tarantino dialogue). He's brilliant, but his work is more subtle than in Inglorious Basterds and giving him another award for another Tarantino film so soon may feel like overkill. Arkin, on the other hand, has a tiny part in Argo, but all the best lines. He is reliably cranky and funny as a jaded Hollywood Producer and aces all his scenes, but he won just six years ago as the cranky, funny grandpa in Little Miss Sunshine, and he lacks the tender moments in Argo that he had in Little Miss Sunshine. The only reason to think he could win is that Argo is winning everything.



Hoffman is the only one in the bunch never to have won Supporting Actor, which seems an odd distinction to make since he did win Best Actor for Capote but, given that he is one of the most reliably brilliant and brilliantly reliable supporting actors in Hollywood, it seems only fair that he should have a Supporting Actor gong to go with his Capote gong. And there's no doubt he is deserving - his complex performance as a charismatic cult leader struggling to conceal - and deny - his own flaws and insecurities is easily the best in the category (although to be fair it is actually a lead performance). Sadly his film wasn't particularly embraced by the Academy and he feels destined to be an also-ran.

Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro are probably the easiest to imagine as winners. The case for each of them:

Robert De Niro has been absent from the Oscar race for a good 21 years. And with good reason. The legendary actor has been making the worst movies of his career, one after the other. That he redeems himself in Playbook is significant, and welcome, but he hardly stretches himself far from the cantankerous father he played in the Meet the Parents movies. That being said, this is a strong supporting part, even if it doesn't live up to De Niro's best work (little could). He plays a difficult, superstitious OCD gambler, husband and father. His mental illness, unlike the cute, quirky variety afflicting Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence, is genuinely unpleasant at times, and affords De Niro some good screen rants. More significantly, he also has tender moments with Bradley Cooper, even shedding a few tears, which are probably the bits that will earn him the win. He has won no prizes for this part, but Silver Linings Playbook is a hugely popular film, and De Niro is an Oscar legend who has been doing some solid campaigning. He hasn't won since 1981. A third Oscar seems plausible.

Tommy Lee Jones is great fun as the grumpy (seems to be a bit of a trend this year), acerbic Thaddeus Stevens, forced to publicly compromise his strong ideals to see his cause succeed. It's a meaty performance with some great lines, plenty of good laughs and a significant chunk of the film's climax. His sourpuss demeanour at the Golden Globes earned him momentary grumpy cat meme status, and he didn't show up to collect his award from the Screen Actors Guild. He doesn't seem too interested in campaigning for the award, which shouldn't make a difference but does. So who knows how this will turn out for him. If Lincoln does well, he'd be unstoppable, but that seems unlikely. He also turned in a strong performance opposite Meryl Streep in Hope Springs, which could count in his favour. He won supporting actor for The Fugitive in 1994 and was nominated once, for Lead Actor for In the Valley of Elah, since.

Will win: Robert De Niro

Should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Could win: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Amy Adams is unsettlingly creepy as the devoted wife and disciple of Seymour Hoffman's cult leader - who may or may not be aware of the extraordinary power she wields over him; Sally Field redeems Mary Todd Lincoln from the footnotes of history, playing her in multiple shades of intelligence, social awareness, vigor, intelligence, obsession, barely suppressed hysteria and madness; Helen Hunt is brave, warm, honest and mostly nude as a compassionate sex surrogate (note, not a prostitute) and Jacki Weaver is the most lovable mother of the year, making crabby snacks and home mades as she quietly keeps her family of crazies together.

But Anne Hathaway has owned this Oscar from the moment the first Les Mis trailer showed her singing I Dreamed a Dream, with a shaved head, waning hope and plentiful supply of bitter tears. Her live singing, single take, close up performance of the song has almost become a cliché, but that shouldn't detract from the sheer power and force of her performance. It's a tricky thing to pull off and Hathaway is intensely mesmerising as she gives herself completely to the part she saw her mother perform on stage as a little girl. Tragic prostitute with a heart of gold who sings? No competition.

Will win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Arguably, Sally Field
Could win: Highly unlikely, Sally Field

Best Original Screenplay:

Wes Anderson & Roman Coppolla - Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
John Gatins - Flight
Michael Haneke - Amour
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

Mark Boal may have won in 2010 for The Hurt Locker, but there's no one who deserves it more this year. His painstakingly, and controversially, researched procedural of the hunt for Bin Laden is nothing short of masterful. But sadly his film has suffered badly from the controversy surrounding it's depiction of torture. His recent win from the Writer's Guild may or may not have redeemed in but, sadly, Boal is not currently the frontrunner he should be.

John Gatins, an open former alcoholic, presumably poured much of his heart and soul into the story of a heroic pilot struggling to come to terms with his alcoholism. It's a strong character piece but likely not enough to wipe out the competition - where he goes up against three Best Picture nominees.

Wes Anderson is back in the Original Screenplay race, this time with Roman Coppolla, and his tale of troubled pre-teen lovers fleeing their small town angst is as tender as it is unpredictable. It's got all the usual Anderson trademarks - precocious children, emotionally stunted grown ups, random activities for Bill Murray - but touches on something enigmatically poignant.

Michael Haneke wrote and directed a spare, ferociously unsentimental portrait of a loving, complex elderly couple facing the realities of physical decay and death. It's a downer, but a touching one, and it has a lovely circular structure that echoes the way we tend to end life the same way we started.  

Which just leaves Tarantino's anarchic, post-modern take on American slavery. It's a conversation-starter, I'll give it that, and its red hot anger at America's sordid, lingering, past is seductive, but it's not the best Tarantino effort - it's overlong, indulgent and morally unsettling. From the film's opening scene it is clear that there is no moral higher ground here; in Tarantino'd bloodthirsty world the oppressed, given the chance, gleefully turn as sadistic and inhuman as their oppressors. That belies the phenomenal, unwarranted restraint with which Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela demanded rights for black citizens in America and South Africa respectively. But, you know, it's bold and it's funny and Tarantino lost to Mark Boal in 2010. Though this is a far less sophisticated script than Inglorious Basterds, conventional wisdom says the Oscar is Tarantino's to lose. I'm not convinced he won't, though. I just don't know who they're likely to prefer.

Will win: Mark Boal (again, I am voting against logic here)
Should win: Mark Boal
Could win: Michael Haneke

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Tony Kushner - Lincoln
David Magee - Life of Pi
David O'Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio - Argo
Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar - Beasts of the Southern Wild


This one should be Tony Kushner's to lose - his detailed, thoughtful account of Lincoln's struggle to get slavery abolished in a country that didn't want to let it go is both a fascinating window on an amazing man and a time and place. Based on Doris Kearns Goodwin's definitive biography on Lincoln, Kushner's gorgeous dialogue illuminates ideas and dilemmas we should would do well to keep discussing today. It's a detailed labour of love that should easily win, but sadly there is the matter of:

Argo keeps winning everything. The Academy might resist the trend and vote otherwise, but groupthink is a powerful thing - if everyone else thinks something is that good, there must be something to it. There's nothing wrong with Chris Terrio's script. It's a near-perfect thriller blended with an unlikely Hollywood farce and it all happens to be true. Personally, the resolution was a bit too tidy for my liking, but it's good writing nonetheless. Doesn't mean it's the best, though.

David O'Russell is a big potential upset here, as he's made no secret of why he adapted Matthew Quick's novel - to make his son, who himself suffers from mental illness, feel like he has a place in the world. And it's a beguiling backstory that's hard to resist. It even makes you forget that this is basically an upgraded romantic comedy. But I guess there's nothing wrong with a good romantic comedy. Especially if it gives people hope.

David Magee beautifully distilled Yann Mantell's sleeper hit literary novel, and Benh Zeitlin crafted the most poetic script of the year from Lucy Alibar's play. But this is a three-way race:

Will win: Chris Terrio
Should win: Tony Kushner
Could win: David O'Russell

Best Editing:

William Goldenberg - Argo
Michael Kahn - Lincoln
Tim Squyres - Life of Pi
Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers - Silver Linings Playook
William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor - Zero Dark Thirty

I include Editing as a Main Category, rather than a technical one, as it so often has a direct bearing on the directing, and therefore the Best Picture, race.

William Goldenberg is a double nominee. Zero Dark Thirty is the film he should win for, Argo is the film he will win for. Simple as that. (Barring Lincoln, Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook taking over the Best Picture race).

Will win: William Goldernberg (Argo)
Should win: William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor (Zero Dark Thirty) 
Could win: Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playook)

And just before the Oscar nominations hit...

Forecasting the Oscars is not really about the Oscars, because even the Oscars are not really about the Oscars. It's about loving movies (The Oscars themselves may be about making more money out of movies, and winning Emmys, but let's not judge). We love movies and we love to see things we love, things that moved us, things that wowed us, things that altered us, praised and celebrated. And we love to bitch and moan when stuff we love is sidelined for stuff we didn't much care for.

Be that as it may, tracking the Oscar race (the whole silly spiel leading up to the whole silly event) is fun for two reasons - 1) for some reason it's fun to guess how the Academy is going to think, and to see how the general consensus shapes up from the early Film Festivals to the myriad of awards that start pouring in at year end - seeing the year in cinema shape up to what the records will remember. 2) Tracking the whole thing allows you to keep up with the also-rans, the almost-made-its, the coulda-been-contenders, those who thankfully missed the cut and those who inexplicably got shafted.

I will passionately write in favour of the overlooked when the dust of D-Day has settled, but in anticipation of tomorrow, let's have a look at the groupthink as it stands now. For purposes of this post, I will refer to the conglomerate of Critics Groups Awards as "The Critics", and to the conglomerate results of other groups like Film Festivals and Award-giving bodies from the Gotham Awards to the Golden Globes as "The Precursors".

Best Picture:

See here.

Best Director:

The Critics backed Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty (still with a massive lead, despite Torture Porn backlash), Ben Affleck for Argo (slowly becoming Bigelow's less-controversial alternative), Paul Thomas Anderson for enigmatic The Master, Ang Lee for the gentle, technically astounding Life of Pi and Steven Spielberg for his manically detailed biopic of the great President, Lincoln (threatening to sneakily become the one to beat).

Click to enlarge (regrettably abbreviated for the sake of space)

The Precursors also favoured Kathryn Bigelow, closely by Ben Affleck, Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee and David O'Russell for crowd pleasing indie rom com Silver Linings Playbook, in that order.

That gives us a logical top four of Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg and Lee, which matches yesterday's Director's Guild nominees. But the fifth slot remains open for the taking. The Critics went for Paul Thomas Anderson, but the Academy is unlikely too (too weird, too much ungrateful Joaquin Phoenix), The Precursors favoured O'Russell, and the Directors Guild threw a bone at much criticised previous winner Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. The BAFTA's are reminder that you can't count out Quentin Tarantino for the ever-popular and daring Django Unchained, or Michael Haneke scoring an art-house slot for critically raved Amour.

On the outskirts with multiple nominations? Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom and Leos Carax for Holy Motors. 

My guess? Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, Lee and Tarantino. But honestly, I'm hoping for a surprise. So let's say Haneke!

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Best Actress:

An interesting field with Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) way out in the lead, hitting every single note that counts.For the remaining three? Anyone's guess, although we can guess fairly closely by now.

After Jennifer Lawrence, The Critics backed french veteran Emmanuelle Riva in a big way, citing her even more often than Jessica Chastain. But sadly she is likely to be snubbed by the Oscars as Marion Cotillard is already in the mix, and nominating two subtitled performances is just asking too much, and Marion Cotillard is better known. And hotter. Sorry Emmanuelle. We continue to hold out hope, though. After that, they pushed the youngest contender of the year - Beasts of the Southern Wild's Quvenzhane Wallis, hoping for a  Keisha-Castle Hughes Whale Rider type miracle, and Naomi Watts surviving a Tsunami in The Impossible.

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The Precursors have Chastain and Lawrence perfectly on par, followed by Marion Cotillard, Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis.

On the outskirts are Helen Mirren as Alma Reville in Hitchcock, and a trio of brilliant, underseen performances skirting infidelity: Ematatzy Corinealdi in Middle of Nowhere, Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz and Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea. Interestingly, Keira Knightley's adulterous Anna Karenina was almost uniformly snubbed (only gaining notice from the Golden Satellites).

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Although it's hard to vote against the iconic, much-loved Riva and Wallis, Naomi Watts, Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren scored campaign-making twin nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes, and have career credibility to back them. Cotillard and Mirren proved their popularity with BAFTA
nominations today (although so did Riva), while Watts is massively overdue for her second nomination.

My prediction? Chastain, Lawrence, Watts, Cotillard and Mirren, although I continue to hope for Riva.


Best Actor:

A very tight race between six very strong contenders. It seems a shame to shut out any one of Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix as an alcoholic seemingly functioning entirely outside of society's rules in The Master, John Hawkes touching and funny as real-life quadriplegic Mark O'Brien falling for the sex surrogate he hires to see if his naughty bits work in The Sessions, Hugh Jackman singing everyone to tears (in a good way) in Les Miserables,  Denzel Washington digging up the soul of a complex alcoholic / hero in Flight and Bradley Cooper trying to get the better of Bi-Polar in Silver Linings Playbook, but one of them is going to miss out.

On the face of it, Bradley Cooper seems the least heavy-weight of the bunch, but the Precursors have him out front as the most consistently nominated Actor of the year (beating even Daniel-Day Lewis with two additional nominations, AND an additional win). Everyone else sits squarely with five nominations a piece, and it will be for the Academy to decide who they like best. Joaquin Phoenix's snub by the Screen Actors Guild (presumably for expressing his dislike for The Oscars and the campaigning it takes to win them) is probably bodes poorly for him, as is the general lack of support for his tricky, artsy film. But his performance seems too huge, too iconic, too brilliant to ignore.

John Hawkes was overlooked at the BAFTAs, although co-star Helen Hunt was nominated, but the two have been campaigned and nominated so consistently as a pair, it is hard to imagine him missing.

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The Critics went for Daniel Day-Lewis in a huge, almost unrivaled, way, followed by Joaquin Phoenix, John Hawkes, Denzel Washington and, interestingly, Holy Motors' multi-character weirdo Denis Lavant pushing out both Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper.


In the final evaluation, I'm going with Daniel Day-Lewis being unshakable, Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper being too enticing as Box Office stars making good (and presumably attracting significant Oscar viewership as well), Denzel Washington being too respected to pass up, and Joaquin Phoenix too brilliant not to be forgiven, leaving John Hawkes sadly on the sideline. But only time will tell.

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Supporting Actress:

Anne Hathaway has already won Best Supporting Actress for singing, crying, shaving her head and dying, all at once, in Les Miserables, although the critics gave quite a push for Sally Field as Lincoln's unstable, quietly hysterical other half in Lincoln. They're both guaranteed their spot, as is Helen Hunt as a self-possessed sex surrogate calmly baring all in The Sessions. 

Battling out the final two slots are the ever reliable Amy Adams as Phillip Seymour Hoffman's stern, mysterious and frankly creepy wife in The Master, Ann Dowd as an impressionable fast food store manager performing horrendous deeds with presumably good intentions in Compliance and Nicole Kidman going full-on trashy Southern prison slut in The Paperboy. 

Adams is all but locked, save that odd SAG snub, while Kidman was all but missing in the race until her SAG / Golden Globe double-whammy. Dowd is the most hit-and-miss, as far as prescursors go, but was universally praised for her breakthrough performance, and has made it abundantly clear how much a nomination would mean for her career.

On the outskirts are British lovelies Judi Dench at her best yet as the impeccable M in Skyfall, and Maggie Smith throwing around racist one-liners, and turning into a good person, in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

My guess would be that both Kidman and Dowd make it in a last minute sweep of hype, and Amy Adams is left out cold.

So: Anne Hathaway, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Ann Dowd and Nicole Kidman.

Supporting Actor:

This year, the supporting actor race is riddled with previous winners: Tommy Lee Jones (Supporting Actor Winner for The Fugitive) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Lead Actor winner for Capote) have their nominations in the bag for Lincoln and The Master, respectively, and likely go head-to-head for the win.

Christoph Waltz (Supporting Actor winner for Inglorious Basterds), has proven ever popular since Django Unchained came on the scene, and looks set to reap his second nomination off of Quentin Tarantino's writing, while Javier Bardem (Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men), delivers an astonishing, campy, whispery villain in Skyfall.

Veterans Alan Arkin (Supporting Actor winner for Little Miss Sunshine) and Robert De Niro (Supporting Actor winner for The Godfather Part II and Lead Actor winner for Raging Bull) round out the list with celebrated, if not brilliant, turns in Best Picture frontrunners Argo and Silver Linings Playbook respectively. I'm as happy as anyone to see De Niro back in the game, but in all honesty his performance is good but not brilliant. The same could be said of Arkin, although Argo needs an acting nomination to stay in the running as a Best Picture winner.

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The wildcards are Leonardo DiCaprio, seemingly desperate for an Oscar (and lately a persistent also-ran) as a colourful Tarantino villain in Django Unchained and Matthew McConaughey, making sure he stayed in conversation this year with not one, not two, but four acclaimed performances in Magic Mike, Bernie, Killer Joe and The Paperboy.

In the final equation, my guess is for Hoffman, Jones, Arkin, Waltz and DiCaprio. Although I would prefer Bardem over DiCaprio, personally.

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Let the good times roll! We'll celebrate and lament in the morning!

In & Out of Character

Leading up to Sunday's Oscar ceremony, check out IMDB's gallery of Oscar nominees "In & Out of Character." A nice idea nicely executed.

Click on the pic to go to the site.

Awards Tracker - Best Supporting Actor

The critics gave extensive support to Albert Brooks in Drive, with 22 nominations from critics groups (although he won only 13). His strongest competition, Christopher Plummer, was close with 18 nominations for Beginners (of which he won 12). The other big turnouts were Kenneth Branagh with six nominations, and one win, for My Week with Marilyn & the great John Hawkes with five nominations for his creepy turn in Martha Marcy May Marlene.

Brad Pitt in Tree of Life & Patton Oswalt in Young Adult reaped four nods each, while Nick Nolte & Andy Serkis each got three nominations for Warrior & Rise of the Planet of the Apes, respectively. Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) & Armie Hammer (J Edgar) show up lower down the list with two nominations each.

The critics' favourites seem to have translated well to the more formal awards; Christopher Plummer is the clear front runner with six nominations and two wins, while Albert Brooks and Kenneth Branagh clock in with four each. Brooks missed out on the very important Screen Actors Guild nomination, however, but the very thorough critical attention should secure his place. After them, Jonah Hill and Nick Nolte clock in with three nominations each, and that is likely to be the final five.

All the attention for Brad Pitt has been redirected to Moneyball and, especially as Tree of Life has been very underwhelmingly received by the major awards bodies, it seems fair to think that he won't manage a second nomination for Tree of Life. The whole Andy Serkis campaign regrettably hasn't taken off with the mainstream awards, and particularly with the important Screen Actors Guild, so I'd count him out (actual filmmakers & actors still seem less enchanted with motion capture than the critics).

John Hawkes, Patton Oswalt & Armie Hammer unfortunately won't get much attention unless their lead actors or films do (& they haven't been), while it is possible, but unlikely, that Jim Broadbent could get swept up in the Meryl Streep storm. Even less likely is that Viggo Mortensen will get caught up in the Fassbender storm (especially as he supports Fassbender's other film). Max Von Sydow seems such a logical nominee, but the response to Loud and Close has been very lacklustre, and Von Sydow has not featured much in the precursors. Nevertheless, I'd still consider him as an outside contender. If I had to swap out anyone, it would be Jonah Hill.

So, my predictions:

Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Albert Brooks - Drive

Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn

Nick Nolte - Warrior

Jonah Hill - Moneyball

Alternates:

Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Patton Oswalt - Young Adult

Midnight in Paris - Review

Woody Allen's biggest box office success ever is a fun, irreverent history lesson and a celebration of the greatest times in Parisian history, including the present.

Built around little more than a whimsical plot twist and a glowing love for Paris, Allen's film is somewhat uneven but endlessly charming & uncharacteristically sweet. Owen Wilson makes a better screen Woody Allen than Allen has in years; his boyish goofball charms mix well with Allen's rambling neuroses. Eternally disenchanted writer though he may be, Wilson's Gil is more the lovably distractable artist than the impossible neurotic.

Allen's script has been widely celebrated and, while it is certainly joyously inspired, it is not his best. The writing has its problems - the under-developed "present world" set up & characters feel rushed & churned out (Allen could have mined more comedy / humanity out of spoiled Republicans missing the point of Paris), while a number of elegantly illustrated points are undermined by promptly being spelled out by Wilson's Gil (making him all the more quintessentially Allen). It feels like one more edit, or just a touch of restraint, could have delivered a leaner, sharper, more enduringly effective script.

Thes flaws, however, are easily over-shadowed by the success of Allen's loving characterisations of the creative powerhouses haunting Paris in the 20s - and the subsequent increasingly post-modern plot inversions. His Hemingways, Fitzgeralds, Dalis & Steins come vividly to life in a Paris that is almost impossibly magical.

Performances are inspired all round - although Rachel McAdams struggles with a fairly unforgivably self-centred American snob. The modern-day cast mine some good, if easy, laughs, but the 20s cast - and sets, cinematography & costumes - are dynamite. Adrien Brody has a memorable one minute cameo as a loopy Salvador Dali, you wish there were more of Tom Hiddleston & Alison Pill's F Scott & Zelda Fitzgerald, Marion Cotillard is a dreamily seductive Parisian muse, but Corey Stoll & Kathy Bates steal the show as Ernest Hemingway & Gertrude Stein - literary forces to be reckoned with. Even with his head way up his own derriere, Stoll's Hemingway is an immensely magnetic character & had Allen written him just one more payoff scene, he'd easily have walked off with the film - and a chance to go home with an Oscar.

As it stands, it's the overall winning charm, the gorgeous production, the real thoughtfulness, completely unabashed romanticism and significant box office that will secure Allen's 47th film as director a spot among this year's Best Picture nominees.

Who to watch for Supporting Actor

The supporting race is really still quite open until the first awards start rolling in, but there are a few actors who have worked their way into the Oscar conversation by grabbing the best reviews in their respective films, as a best supporting actor should. 

The biggest contenders so far:

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

The 82 year old actor plays a 75 year old widower who is diagnosed with cancer, comes out of the closet and starts hitting the clubs to make up for lost time, six months after his wife’s death. From arty indie director Mike Mills, this is much more of a heartfelt thing than a sitcom thing. Recently nominated for the first time in a long, excellent career, Plummer is currently the frontrunner to win.

Albert Brooks – Drive

The 80s funny man revels at the chance to play against type as a B-movie producer turned dealmaking gangster in Nicolas Winding Refn’s acclaimed arty thriller, stealing all the best reviews from already highly acclaimed Ryan Gosling & Carey Mulligan. Villains are supporting actor gold, and this is a bit of a comeback for Brooks, a previous supporting nominee back in 1987 for his hilarious turn in Broadcast News.  

Nick Nolte – Warrior
The Hollywood veteran draws on his rough past to play a devastatingly vulnerable recovering alcoholic trying to bond with the sons whose life he wrecked. Quietly painful with a powerful, unexpected finish. A two time Best Actor nominee (he was on the way to win for The Prince of Tides in 1991, until Anthony Hopkins & Silence of the Lambs came along).

Strong competitors:


Brad Pitt - Tree of Life

As a figment of Sean Penn's memory, Pitt's father figure is necessarily vague around the edges, but he anchors the film in his personification of "the way of nature" - his Mr O Brien an ambitious, disappointed man who dominates young Jack's childhood as a loving, but misguidedly harsh & intimidating, 1950s father. I don't quite see Pitt as a double nominee, though, and at the moment it feels like he is more likely to be nominated as lead actor for Moneyball.



Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Pre-weight loss Jonah Hill brings his every man charm and sharp wit to Bennett Miller's baseball / statistics film, proving that baseball can be won by brains as well as brawn, as he rattles off Aaron Sorkin's quickfire dialogue opposite Brad Pitt. A known comic actor turning in a serious performance in one of the year's biggest films; sounds like an Oscar contender to me.

John Hawkes - Martha Macy May Marlene
The seasoned purveyor of indie eccentrics, and recent Oscar nominee for Winter's Bone, delves into the mind and skin of a creepy cult leader. Manipulative charm a-plenty. As with Winter's Bone, his nomination is hooked on the back of his lead actress's breakthrough performance, in this case Elizabeth Olsen as Martha Marcy etc. If she misses her nomination, it is unlikely he will make it without her, unfortunately.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Ides of March / Moneyball

Phillip Seymour Hoffman has always been the highlight of any film he's in. No-one can make dialogue come alive with more freshness and immediacy than Hoffman. In Ides of March, he takes on Ryan Gosling & George Clooney in a game of shady politics, in Moneyball, he has fun with Aaron Sorkin dialogue opposite Brad Pitt. Hoffman's last Sorkin-scripted film was Charlie Wilson's War, which landed him the film's sole nomination, for Best Supporting Actor. Kind of like a younger, male Judi Dench, his presence in Oscary films is just impossible to ignore.

Corey Stoll - Midnight in Paris

The biggest standout in Woody Allen's Best Picture contender (and highest grossing film ever), Stoll essays Ernest Hemingway's infamous intellectual charm, toughness & genius. A small part in a big cast, but he still has the film's best reviews and plays a legendary literary figure. The academy should be grateful after Chris O'Donnell's version of Hemingway in 1996's In Love and War, who was out "toughed" by Sandra Bullock's love-struck nurse. 

Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method 

Viggo is a legend. Regrettably, his only nomination has been for the very brilliant Eastern Promises. (among his several snubs, A History of Violence is the most painful). In A Dangerous Method, he plays Sigmund Freud opposite Michael Fassbender's Carl Jung. The film has met only lukewarm response from critics, with Fassbender and Keira Knightly getting most of the attention as the film's forbidden lovers. Fassbender's Best Actor campaign is for his sex addict in Shame and Knightley is fast being edged out of the Best Actress race, but don't count out Mortensen's detailed perfection if the Academy finds themselves looking for a fifth slot nominee.

Ezra Miller - We Need to Talk About Kevin

The rising indie star plays Tilda Swinton's psycho-in-the-making teenage son. Complex family dynamics, to say the least. If Swinton's campaign pays off, Miller could tag along. If not, count him out.








Unseen contenders:
No-one's seen their performances, but great things are expected.

Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The novel's most interesting character. Legendary actor. He has been good lately, but not in English, and not in a big, tear-jerking Best Picture contender.

Tom Hanks - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 

Oscar favourite in the film's most heart-string-pulling role as Oskar's beloved and tragically fated dad.

Jim Broadbent - The Iron Lady
Previous Oscar-winner for playing Iris Murdoch's long-suffering husband in Iris, British legend takes on another real-life background husband, this time as Denis Thatcher, husband to the better known Margaret.

Armie Hammer - J Edgar
After making a big impression as both twins in last year's The Social Network, handsome Hammer got cast as J Edgar Hoover's apprentice / alleged lover in Clint Eastwood's biopic. Probably not likely to make the top five, but should certainly show up in nominations along the way.










Not Contenders (but should be) :

Ralph Fiennes - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Fiennes finally gets to unleash Voldemort's weird intensity, but can the Academy take a non-Tolkien wizard seriously?

Michael Fassbender - X-Men: First Class
Fassbender has more than enough Oscar contending roles in the mix, but his turn as the wounded, sharply intelligent man who will go on to become Magneto is pure perfection. Again, though, try to make the Academy take a comic book villain seriously.