Awards Tracker - Best Supporting Actor

The critics gave extensive support to Albert Brooks in Drive, with 22 nominations from critics groups (although he won only 13). His strongest competition, Christopher Plummer, was close with 18 nominations for Beginners (of which he won 12). The other big turnouts were Kenneth Branagh with six nominations, and one win, for My Week with Marilyn & the great John Hawkes with five nominations for his creepy turn in Martha Marcy May Marlene.

Brad Pitt in Tree of Life & Patton Oswalt in Young Adult reaped four nods each, while Nick Nolte & Andy Serkis each got three nominations for Warrior & Rise of the Planet of the Apes, respectively. Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) & Armie Hammer (J Edgar) show up lower down the list with two nominations each.

The critics' favourites seem to have translated well to the more formal awards; Christopher Plummer is the clear front runner with six nominations and two wins, while Albert Brooks and Kenneth Branagh clock in with four each. Brooks missed out on the very important Screen Actors Guild nomination, however, but the very thorough critical attention should secure his place. After them, Jonah Hill and Nick Nolte clock in with three nominations each, and that is likely to be the final five.

All the attention for Brad Pitt has been redirected to Moneyball and, especially as Tree of Life has been very underwhelmingly received by the major awards bodies, it seems fair to think that he won't manage a second nomination for Tree of Life. The whole Andy Serkis campaign regrettably hasn't taken off with the mainstream awards, and particularly with the important Screen Actors Guild, so I'd count him out (actual filmmakers & actors still seem less enchanted with motion capture than the critics).

John Hawkes, Patton Oswalt & Armie Hammer unfortunately won't get much attention unless their lead actors or films do (& they haven't been), while it is possible, but unlikely, that Jim Broadbent could get swept up in the Meryl Streep storm. Even less likely is that Viggo Mortensen will get caught up in the Fassbender storm (especially as he supports Fassbender's other film). Max Von Sydow seems such a logical nominee, but the response to Loud and Close has been very lacklustre, and Von Sydow has not featured much in the precursors. Nevertheless, I'd still consider him as an outside contender. If I had to swap out anyone, it would be Jonah Hill.

So, my predictions:

Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Albert Brooks - Drive

Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn

Nick Nolte - Warrior

Jonah Hill - Moneyball

Alternates:

Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Patton Oswalt - Young Adult