Oscar - Main Categories

Best Picture:

This is an epic discussion. For once, it really will be a nail biter on Oscar night. Okay, it will probably be Argo, but I can't help hoping.

My full best picture breakdown will follow soon.

Best Director:

Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O'Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Anyone's guess. Had Ben Affleck nominated, he'd be your man, scooping up gold with Argo's unstoppable winning streak. Then again, had Ben Affleck nominated, he'd be the frontrunner, not the underdog, and his film arguably wouldn't be enjoying such an unstoppable winning streak. But then again, who knows? Even the British and the French awarded Argo over the other brilliant American films of 2012. Affleck being outside the race as he is, Best Director is wide open.

Let's presume Benh Zeitlin is the contender that's just happy to be there for his micro budget, breathtaking Beasts of the Southern Wild. That's one down.

David O'Russell seems the most lightweight contender, but his film has a fanatic support base that takes his quirky mental illness rom com very seriously indeed. It was fairly rapturously received by the Academy with not just nominations in the big four - Picture, Director, Editing and Screenplay - but every one of the four acting categories as well. His film is a strong contender for Best Actress and Supporting Actor and remains an outside threat for Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture - so a Best Director win is not out of the question. What he has going for him, other than an extremely popular film, is that, unlike Spielberg and Ang Lee, he has never won an Oscar and, unlike Haneke and Zeitlin, everybody knows and, surprisingly (given his notorious fallouts with Lily Tomlin and George Clooney), likes him. There could be a perception that he is due after not winning for The Fighter. What he has working against him is that every other director deserves it more. I just can't see Kathryn Bigelow being snubbed and David O'Russell winning. But stranger things have happened.

That leaves three distinguished directors at the top of their game: Spielberg, Ang Lee and Michael Haneke. Haneke would be the art house pick. He is a first-time contender with a respectable, distinct filmography whose film was a surprise hit with the Academy. His leading lady is a big threat to win Best Actress and he is all but guaranteed to win Best Foreign Language Film. There is no Oscar precedent for a Foreign Language Film actually winning Best Director (although they were fond of nominating Federico Fellini in the 60s and 70s), presumably cause it's hard to really notice the directing when you have to read all those damn words at the bottom of the screen. Technically The Artist was a french film, but not a language one, so it doesn't count. Haneke's films are also known to be cold and, while Amour isn't, it is uber sad, in a very detached, realistic way. 

Which leaves the more likely Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee. The Academy adored their films, adorning them with 12 and 11 nominations respectively. Both directors are previous winners who have lost Best Picture in legendary upsets. Both are also respected enough to warrant additional directing Oscars on their mantelpiece. With Argo the de facto Best Picture winner, however, both men would be winning detached Directing Oscars for the second time in their careers (Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan when Shakespeare in Love took Best Picture, and Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain while - shudder - Crash took Best Picture), which would be a curious distinction.

I favour Ang Lee for two reasons:

1. Spielberg has two previous wins - for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. If the Academy is going to give him a third Director gong, it will be because they love Lincoln. And if they love Lincoln that much, it would win Best Picture as well. But given the Argo situation, that won't be happening, so I just don't see Lincoln winning an isolated Director Oscar. That is weird logic, I know, but there it is.
2. Ang Lee has only one previous win, and it makes more sense for Life of Pi to win an isolated directing Oscar. Though it feels just a slight touch too lightweight to win Best Picture, it is an undeniable director's accomplishment - Lee balances epic spectacle with nuanced spiritual metaphors and gentle emotions and pulls off both with aplomb. His film is already likely to win 3 to 5 technical Oscars; adding Best Director to the list seems as plausible as anything, to me anyway.

Will win: Ang Lee

Should win: In this list? Probably Spielberg.

Could win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper are Box Office stars making good as legit Oscar Contenders, and are sure to secure good ratings for the Oscars Telecast. But neither hold a candle to Daniel Day-Lewis' landmark performance. That doesn't mean Bradley Cooper can't win. But I don't want to think about that. So let's move on.

Denzel Washington is a hugely accomplished actor turning in a great character study as a brilliant but reckless pilot struggling to face up to his alcoholism. In another year, he would be a strong contender to win. But even Denzel boozer redemption can't beat Daniel-Day Lewis channeling Abraham Lincoln.

Joaquin Phoenix is a sadly unpopular actor turning in a blazingly brilliant performance in a sadly unpopular film. His against-the-odds nomination (which should have been a slam dunk Day-Lewis threatener) is a testimony to the power of his performance, but sadly he's not currently likeable enough to give ol' Dan a run for his money.

Daniel Day-Lewis loses himself in his nuanced, gentle, funny, inspiring, unsentimental, intimate performance as probably America's greatest president since Josiah 'Jed' Bartlet. Even though this will be the THIRD Golden man Day-Lewis takes home (and remember how nearly he won for Gangs of New York), it seems nothing but logical to give him the prize. And although he has enjoyed a practically unbeaten winning streak so far, his win will still feel like a triumph rather than a bore. There is more than enough unpredictability elsewhere.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win: Bradley Cooper Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

An 85-year-old french woman, an indomitable 9-year-old, a bizarrely underappreciated Australian thesp and two rapidly rising stars battle it out for Best Actress.

Both Naomi Watts - as a real life Tsunami survivor and mother hanging on to life by a thread - and Jessica Chastain - transforming from a delicate, driven CIA operative to a fierce, relentless terrorist catcher over the span of ten years - should be strong contenders for the prize: Watts has been overlooked for years and Chastain has made herself impossible to ignore in the space of just 48 months.

Let's face it, though - Best Actress is now a two-horse race between the irresistible Jennifer Lawrence and the brilliant Emmanuelle Riva. With dozens of Critics awards to her name, a Golden Globe and the influential endorsement of the Screen Actors Guild, Lawrence has the clear edge to win for breathing new, unpredictable life and captivating energy into Tiffany, a typical tramp with a heart of gold. She's extremely funny, she's constantly surprising, and her emotional beats are genuinely touching. To add to that, Lawrence is young, hot, hard working and almost bizarrely level-headed (she took her parents to the SAG awards). She also owned the Box Office this year, headlining the Hunger Games franchise with another strong performance. Being likeable and owning the Box Office is a trick that worked wonders for Sandra Bullock just three ominous years ago, and Lawrence gives a better performance, although she has less industry cred. It also doesn't hurt having Harvey Weinstein backing your campaign.

But Emmanuelle Riva has an ace up her sleeve - simply the most breathtaking female performance of the year. She's been surprisingly overlooked in the awards race - sidelined by the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild in favour of hotter Frenchy Marion Cotillard - but those that have had the good sense to nominate her have also been smart enougn to let her win (with the exception of the Critics Choice Awards, who went with Jessica Chastain). The BAFTAs signalled her first victory directly against Lawrence and, sadly, she wasn't there to make an acceptance speech (a good speech does wonders for a campaign, and Lawrence gives great speeches). But BAFTA upsets are known for creating Oscar prescendents (see Marion Cotillard finally getting the edge over the great Julie Christie in 2008 or The Pianist suddenly becoming a real contender after winning big at the BAFTAs in 2003). The Oscars were one of the few awards bodies outside Europe to generously appreciate Amour with five nominations, so presumably enough Academy members actually saw Amour to know that no-one deserves it more than Riva. If they need more convincing, someone should mention that, if she wins, it will be on her 86th birthday and she will be handed the award by hugely charming frenchman Jean Dujardin. That's a better morning after story than Lawrence peaking at 22.

Will win: Emmanuelle Riva (I know I am voting against the odds, but what's the use of predicting the obvious?)
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence


Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Not since 1995 has this category been so hard to predict. That year, Brad Pitt had won the Golden Globe (12 Monkeys), Ed Harris the Screen Actors Guild (Apollo 13), Tim Roth the BAFTA (Rob Roy) and they all contended for the Oscar, which Kevin Spacey won (for his legendary performance in The Usual Suspects). The Academy made the right call and, to be fair, it was a plausible call after Spacey's good run with the Critics Awards.

This year, Christoph Waltz has the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, Tommy Lee Jones has the Screen Actors Guild, Phillip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, but nothing else, and is the only contender whose film isn't in the Best Picture race. Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro have no big wins (De Niro even lost the Golden Satellite, where Silver Linings Playbook cleaned out), but Arkin is the only acting nominee from the De Facto Best Picture frontrunner (and Screen Actors Guild ensemble winner) and De Niro is an Oscar veteren in a hugely popular film with more acting nominations than anything else.

For the first time in Oscar history, there is not a single first-time Oscar nominee among the Supporting Actor contenders, and - to up the stakes - each of these men have an Oscar on their mantelpiece already. Which makes for an interesting race.

Alan Arkin & Christoph Waltz are the most recent winners and, arguably, don't stray far from their previous winning roles. Waltz bested the strongly buzzed Leonardo DiCaprio to a supporting nod for Django, and it's easy to see why - he is the only sustainably likeable character in the film and has all the best dialogue (and he sure knows how to deliver Tarantino dialogue). He's brilliant, but his work is more subtle than in Inglorious Basterds and giving him another award for another Tarantino film so soon may feel like overkill. Arkin, on the other hand, has a tiny part in Argo, but all the best lines. He is reliably cranky and funny as a jaded Hollywood Producer and aces all his scenes, but he won just six years ago as the cranky, funny grandpa in Little Miss Sunshine, and he lacks the tender moments in Argo that he had in Little Miss Sunshine. The only reason to think he could win is that Argo is winning everything.



Hoffman is the only one in the bunch never to have won Supporting Actor, which seems an odd distinction to make since he did win Best Actor for Capote but, given that he is one of the most reliably brilliant and brilliantly reliable supporting actors in Hollywood, it seems only fair that he should have a Supporting Actor gong to go with his Capote gong. And there's no doubt he is deserving - his complex performance as a charismatic cult leader struggling to conceal - and deny - his own flaws and insecurities is easily the best in the category (although to be fair it is actually a lead performance). Sadly his film wasn't particularly embraced by the Academy and he feels destined to be an also-ran.

Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro are probably the easiest to imagine as winners. The case for each of them:

Robert De Niro has been absent from the Oscar race for a good 21 years. And with good reason. The legendary actor has been making the worst movies of his career, one after the other. That he redeems himself in Playbook is significant, and welcome, but he hardly stretches himself far from the cantankerous father he played in the Meet the Parents movies. That being said, this is a strong supporting part, even if it doesn't live up to De Niro's best work (little could). He plays a difficult, superstitious OCD gambler, husband and father. His mental illness, unlike the cute, quirky variety afflicting Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence, is genuinely unpleasant at times, and affords De Niro some good screen rants. More significantly, he also has tender moments with Bradley Cooper, even shedding a few tears, which are probably the bits that will earn him the win. He has won no prizes for this part, but Silver Linings Playbook is a hugely popular film, and De Niro is an Oscar legend who has been doing some solid campaigning. He hasn't won since 1981. A third Oscar seems plausible.

Tommy Lee Jones is great fun as the grumpy (seems to be a bit of a trend this year), acerbic Thaddeus Stevens, forced to publicly compromise his strong ideals to see his cause succeed. It's a meaty performance with some great lines, plenty of good laughs and a significant chunk of the film's climax. His sourpuss demeanour at the Golden Globes earned him momentary grumpy cat meme status, and he didn't show up to collect his award from the Screen Actors Guild. He doesn't seem too interested in campaigning for the award, which shouldn't make a difference but does. So who knows how this will turn out for him. If Lincoln does well, he'd be unstoppable, but that seems unlikely. He also turned in a strong performance opposite Meryl Streep in Hope Springs, which could count in his favour. He won supporting actor for The Fugitive in 1994 and was nominated once, for Lead Actor for In the Valley of Elah, since.

Will win: Robert De Niro

Should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Could win: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Amy Adams is unsettlingly creepy as the devoted wife and disciple of Seymour Hoffman's cult leader - who may or may not be aware of the extraordinary power she wields over him; Sally Field redeems Mary Todd Lincoln from the footnotes of history, playing her in multiple shades of intelligence, social awareness, vigor, intelligence, obsession, barely suppressed hysteria and madness; Helen Hunt is brave, warm, honest and mostly nude as a compassionate sex surrogate (note, not a prostitute) and Jacki Weaver is the most lovable mother of the year, making crabby snacks and home mades as she quietly keeps her family of crazies together.

But Anne Hathaway has owned this Oscar from the moment the first Les Mis trailer showed her singing I Dreamed a Dream, with a shaved head, waning hope and plentiful supply of bitter tears. Her live singing, single take, close up performance of the song has almost become a cliché, but that shouldn't detract from the sheer power and force of her performance. It's a tricky thing to pull off and Hathaway is intensely mesmerising as she gives herself completely to the part she saw her mother perform on stage as a little girl. Tragic prostitute with a heart of gold who sings? No competition.

Will win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Arguably, Sally Field
Could win: Highly unlikely, Sally Field

Best Original Screenplay:

Wes Anderson & Roman Coppolla - Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
John Gatins - Flight
Michael Haneke - Amour
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

Mark Boal may have won in 2010 for The Hurt Locker, but there's no one who deserves it more this year. His painstakingly, and controversially, researched procedural of the hunt for Bin Laden is nothing short of masterful. But sadly his film has suffered badly from the controversy surrounding it's depiction of torture. His recent win from the Writer's Guild may or may not have redeemed in but, sadly, Boal is not currently the frontrunner he should be.

John Gatins, an open former alcoholic, presumably poured much of his heart and soul into the story of a heroic pilot struggling to come to terms with his alcoholism. It's a strong character piece but likely not enough to wipe out the competition - where he goes up against three Best Picture nominees.

Wes Anderson is back in the Original Screenplay race, this time with Roman Coppolla, and his tale of troubled pre-teen lovers fleeing their small town angst is as tender as it is unpredictable. It's got all the usual Anderson trademarks - precocious children, emotionally stunted grown ups, random activities for Bill Murray - but touches on something enigmatically poignant.

Michael Haneke wrote and directed a spare, ferociously unsentimental portrait of a loving, complex elderly couple facing the realities of physical decay and death. It's a downer, but a touching one, and it has a lovely circular structure that echoes the way we tend to end life the same way we started.  

Which just leaves Tarantino's anarchic, post-modern take on American slavery. It's a conversation-starter, I'll give it that, and its red hot anger at America's sordid, lingering, past is seductive, but it's not the best Tarantino effort - it's overlong, indulgent and morally unsettling. From the film's opening scene it is clear that there is no moral higher ground here; in Tarantino'd bloodthirsty world the oppressed, given the chance, gleefully turn as sadistic and inhuman as their oppressors. That belies the phenomenal, unwarranted restraint with which Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela demanded rights for black citizens in America and South Africa respectively. But, you know, it's bold and it's funny and Tarantino lost to Mark Boal in 2010. Though this is a far less sophisticated script than Inglorious Basterds, conventional wisdom says the Oscar is Tarantino's to lose. I'm not convinced he won't, though. I just don't know who they're likely to prefer.

Will win: Mark Boal (again, I am voting against logic here)
Should win: Mark Boal
Could win: Michael Haneke

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Tony Kushner - Lincoln
David Magee - Life of Pi
David O'Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio - Argo
Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar - Beasts of the Southern Wild


This one should be Tony Kushner's to lose - his detailed, thoughtful account of Lincoln's struggle to get slavery abolished in a country that didn't want to let it go is both a fascinating window on an amazing man and a time and place. Based on Doris Kearns Goodwin's definitive biography on Lincoln, Kushner's gorgeous dialogue illuminates ideas and dilemmas we should would do well to keep discussing today. It's a detailed labour of love that should easily win, but sadly there is the matter of:

Argo keeps winning everything. The Academy might resist the trend and vote otherwise, but groupthink is a powerful thing - if everyone else thinks something is that good, there must be something to it. There's nothing wrong with Chris Terrio's script. It's a near-perfect thriller blended with an unlikely Hollywood farce and it all happens to be true. Personally, the resolution was a bit too tidy for my liking, but it's good writing nonetheless. Doesn't mean it's the best, though.

David O'Russell is a big potential upset here, as he's made no secret of why he adapted Matthew Quick's novel - to make his son, who himself suffers from mental illness, feel like he has a place in the world. And it's a beguiling backstory that's hard to resist. It even makes you forget that this is basically an upgraded romantic comedy. But I guess there's nothing wrong with a good romantic comedy. Especially if it gives people hope.

David Magee beautifully distilled Yann Mantell's sleeper hit literary novel, and Benh Zeitlin crafted the most poetic script of the year from Lucy Alibar's play. But this is a three-way race:

Will win: Chris Terrio
Should win: Tony Kushner
Could win: David O'Russell

Best Editing:

William Goldenberg - Argo
Michael Kahn - Lincoln
Tim Squyres - Life of Pi
Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers - Silver Linings Playook
William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor - Zero Dark Thirty

I include Editing as a Main Category, rather than a technical one, as it so often has a direct bearing on the directing, and therefore the Best Picture, race.

William Goldenberg is a double nominee. Zero Dark Thirty is the film he should win for, Argo is the film he will win for. Simple as that. (Barring Lincoln, Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook taking over the Best Picture race).

Will win: William Goldernberg (Argo)
Should win: William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor (Zero Dark Thirty) 
Could win: Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playook)

And just before the Oscar nominations hit...

Forecasting the Oscars is not really about the Oscars, because even the Oscars are not really about the Oscars. It's about loving movies (The Oscars themselves may be about making more money out of movies, and winning Emmys, but let's not judge). We love movies and we love to see things we love, things that moved us, things that wowed us, things that altered us, praised and celebrated. And we love to bitch and moan when stuff we love is sidelined for stuff we didn't much care for.

Be that as it may, tracking the Oscar race (the whole silly spiel leading up to the whole silly event) is fun for two reasons - 1) for some reason it's fun to guess how the Academy is going to think, and to see how the general consensus shapes up from the early Film Festivals to the myriad of awards that start pouring in at year end - seeing the year in cinema shape up to what the records will remember. 2) Tracking the whole thing allows you to keep up with the also-rans, the almost-made-its, the coulda-been-contenders, those who thankfully missed the cut and those who inexplicably got shafted.

I will passionately write in favour of the overlooked when the dust of D-Day has settled, but in anticipation of tomorrow, let's have a look at the groupthink as it stands now. For purposes of this post, I will refer to the conglomerate of Critics Groups Awards as "The Critics", and to the conglomerate results of other groups like Film Festivals and Award-giving bodies from the Gotham Awards to the Golden Globes as "The Precursors".

Best Picture:

See here.

Best Director:

The Critics backed Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty (still with a massive lead, despite Torture Porn backlash), Ben Affleck for Argo (slowly becoming Bigelow's less-controversial alternative), Paul Thomas Anderson for enigmatic The Master, Ang Lee for the gentle, technically astounding Life of Pi and Steven Spielberg for his manically detailed biopic of the great President, Lincoln (threatening to sneakily become the one to beat).

Click to enlarge (regrettably abbreviated for the sake of space)

The Precursors also favoured Kathryn Bigelow, closely by Ben Affleck, Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee and David O'Russell for crowd pleasing indie rom com Silver Linings Playbook, in that order.

That gives us a logical top four of Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg and Lee, which matches yesterday's Director's Guild nominees. But the fifth slot remains open for the taking. The Critics went for Paul Thomas Anderson, but the Academy is unlikely too (too weird, too much ungrateful Joaquin Phoenix), The Precursors favoured O'Russell, and the Directors Guild threw a bone at much criticised previous winner Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. The BAFTA's are reminder that you can't count out Quentin Tarantino for the ever-popular and daring Django Unchained, or Michael Haneke scoring an art-house slot for critically raved Amour.

On the outskirts with multiple nominations? Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom and Leos Carax for Holy Motors. 

My guess? Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, Lee and Tarantino. But honestly, I'm hoping for a surprise. So let's say Haneke!

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Best Actress:

An interesting field with Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) way out in the lead, hitting every single note that counts.For the remaining three? Anyone's guess, although we can guess fairly closely by now.

After Jennifer Lawrence, The Critics backed french veteran Emmanuelle Riva in a big way, citing her even more often than Jessica Chastain. But sadly she is likely to be snubbed by the Oscars as Marion Cotillard is already in the mix, and nominating two subtitled performances is just asking too much, and Marion Cotillard is better known. And hotter. Sorry Emmanuelle. We continue to hold out hope, though. After that, they pushed the youngest contender of the year - Beasts of the Southern Wild's Quvenzhane Wallis, hoping for a  Keisha-Castle Hughes Whale Rider type miracle, and Naomi Watts surviving a Tsunami in The Impossible.

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The Precursors have Chastain and Lawrence perfectly on par, followed by Marion Cotillard, Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis.

On the outskirts are Helen Mirren as Alma Reville in Hitchcock, and a trio of brilliant, underseen performances skirting infidelity: Ematatzy Corinealdi in Middle of Nowhere, Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz and Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea. Interestingly, Keira Knightley's adulterous Anna Karenina was almost uniformly snubbed (only gaining notice from the Golden Satellites).

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Although it's hard to vote against the iconic, much-loved Riva and Wallis, Naomi Watts, Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren scored campaign-making twin nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes, and have career credibility to back them. Cotillard and Mirren proved their popularity with BAFTA
nominations today (although so did Riva), while Watts is massively overdue for her second nomination.

My prediction? Chastain, Lawrence, Watts, Cotillard and Mirren, although I continue to hope for Riva.


Best Actor:

A very tight race between six very strong contenders. It seems a shame to shut out any one of Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix as an alcoholic seemingly functioning entirely outside of society's rules in The Master, John Hawkes touching and funny as real-life quadriplegic Mark O'Brien falling for the sex surrogate he hires to see if his naughty bits work in The Sessions, Hugh Jackman singing everyone to tears (in a good way) in Les Miserables,  Denzel Washington digging up the soul of a complex alcoholic / hero in Flight and Bradley Cooper trying to get the better of Bi-Polar in Silver Linings Playbook, but one of them is going to miss out.

On the face of it, Bradley Cooper seems the least heavy-weight of the bunch, but the Precursors have him out front as the most consistently nominated Actor of the year (beating even Daniel-Day Lewis with two additional nominations, AND an additional win). Everyone else sits squarely with five nominations a piece, and it will be for the Academy to decide who they like best. Joaquin Phoenix's snub by the Screen Actors Guild (presumably for expressing his dislike for The Oscars and the campaigning it takes to win them) is probably bodes poorly for him, as is the general lack of support for his tricky, artsy film. But his performance seems too huge, too iconic, too brilliant to ignore.

John Hawkes was overlooked at the BAFTAs, although co-star Helen Hunt was nominated, but the two have been campaigned and nominated so consistently as a pair, it is hard to imagine him missing.

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The Critics went for Daniel Day-Lewis in a huge, almost unrivaled, way, followed by Joaquin Phoenix, John Hawkes, Denzel Washington and, interestingly, Holy Motors' multi-character weirdo Denis Lavant pushing out both Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper.


In the final evaluation, I'm going with Daniel Day-Lewis being unshakable, Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper being too enticing as Box Office stars making good (and presumably attracting significant Oscar viewership as well), Denzel Washington being too respected to pass up, and Joaquin Phoenix too brilliant not to be forgiven, leaving John Hawkes sadly on the sideline. But only time will tell.

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Supporting Actress:

Anne Hathaway has already won Best Supporting Actress for singing, crying, shaving her head and dying, all at once, in Les Miserables, although the critics gave quite a push for Sally Field as Lincoln's unstable, quietly hysterical other half in Lincoln. They're both guaranteed their spot, as is Helen Hunt as a self-possessed sex surrogate calmly baring all in The Sessions. 

Battling out the final two slots are the ever reliable Amy Adams as Phillip Seymour Hoffman's stern, mysterious and frankly creepy wife in The Master, Ann Dowd as an impressionable fast food store manager performing horrendous deeds with presumably good intentions in Compliance and Nicole Kidman going full-on trashy Southern prison slut in The Paperboy. 

Adams is all but locked, save that odd SAG snub, while Kidman was all but missing in the race until her SAG / Golden Globe double-whammy. Dowd is the most hit-and-miss, as far as prescursors go, but was universally praised for her breakthrough performance, and has made it abundantly clear how much a nomination would mean for her career.

On the outskirts are British lovelies Judi Dench at her best yet as the impeccable M in Skyfall, and Maggie Smith throwing around racist one-liners, and turning into a good person, in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

My guess would be that both Kidman and Dowd make it in a last minute sweep of hype, and Amy Adams is left out cold.

So: Anne Hathaway, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Ann Dowd and Nicole Kidman.

Supporting Actor:

This year, the supporting actor race is riddled with previous winners: Tommy Lee Jones (Supporting Actor Winner for The Fugitive) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Lead Actor winner for Capote) have their nominations in the bag for Lincoln and The Master, respectively, and likely go head-to-head for the win.

Christoph Waltz (Supporting Actor winner for Inglorious Basterds), has proven ever popular since Django Unchained came on the scene, and looks set to reap his second nomination off of Quentin Tarantino's writing, while Javier Bardem (Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men), delivers an astonishing, campy, whispery villain in Skyfall.

Veterans Alan Arkin (Supporting Actor winner for Little Miss Sunshine) and Robert De Niro (Supporting Actor winner for The Godfather Part II and Lead Actor winner for Raging Bull) round out the list with celebrated, if not brilliant, turns in Best Picture frontrunners Argo and Silver Linings Playbook respectively. I'm as happy as anyone to see De Niro back in the game, but in all honesty his performance is good but not brilliant. The same could be said of Arkin, although Argo needs an acting nomination to stay in the running as a Best Picture winner.

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The wildcards are Leonardo DiCaprio, seemingly desperate for an Oscar (and lately a persistent also-ran) as a colourful Tarantino villain in Django Unchained and Matthew McConaughey, making sure he stayed in conversation this year with not one, not two, but four acclaimed performances in Magic Mike, Bernie, Killer Joe and The Paperboy.

In the final equation, my guess is for Hoffman, Jones, Arkin, Waltz and DiCaprio. Although I would prefer Bardem over DiCaprio, personally.

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Let the good times roll! We'll celebrate and lament in the morning!

Best Actor - in Trailers

The big dogs:

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Denzel Washington - Flight

John Hawkes - The Sessions

The guys in the wings:

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock

Richard Gere - Arbitrage

The Dark Horses:

Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Actor

It's just a freaking strong & frankly exciting year for Best Actor with too many real contenders for the five available slots. But more just the great performances that will inevitably be snubbed, this is also a year with at least four strong front runners to win, which means we have ourselves a real race (for now at least).

1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln 
Daniel Day-Lewis still leads the race for now as honest Abe in Spielberg's much-celebrated, much-watched (good combination) biopic. He walks a touchy line of impersonation with grandiose speeches and a weird voice which could easily add up to hammy scenery chewing. But this is Daniel Day-Lewis and he has now pretty much stepped up to being the greatest actor alive. For now. Like the very best of impersonation performances (think Helen Mirren in The Queen), Day-Lewis inhabits his character, living & breathing but never over-playing him. Audiences and critics have taken to both the skill of his performance and the venerable stature of his character and, in a significant political year for America, his performance already feels a little bit iconic. When you're the frontrunner for your third lead Oscar, and no-one begrudges you, you've done something right. Incidentally, if he wins, he joins the ranks of:

• Ingrid Bergman - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)
• Meryl Streep - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)
• Jack Nicholson - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)

But still stands back for Katherine Hepburn with 4 wins (all lead).

2. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Critics are divided on Paul Thomas Anderson's latest masterpiece, particularly around what it means and whether it means anything at all, but the one thing everyone seemed to uniformly agree on was that the Oscar already had Joaqion Phoenix's name on it. That was until Lincoln came along, and Phoenix called the Oscars "bullshit" and "the worst carrot I've ever tasted". To be fair, he was referring mostly to the horror of campaigning for an Oscar, which it's easy to agree can get ugly, and he did later try to retract his comments or at least place them in context. Does this negate his Oscar chances? With so many strong contenders, it probably does take his name solidly off the Oscar, but given the strength of his performance as an odd, wild alcoholic destructive finding refuge under the wing of Phillip Seymour Hoffman's titular Master, he shouldn't have much trouble still getting nominated. (as a side note, I see the ugliness and ludicrousness of campaigning people and putting them in competition with each other, and of course being acknowledged by your industry as the "best" is as weird as it must be flattering, but the prestige of the Oscars does keep the industry actors are privileged to work in going and, if nothing else, it means a lot to the bottom line of the movie they signed up for & for the fans who fell in love with it, one of which must surely be the reason they do it all in the first place).

3. Denzel Washington - Flight
Robert Zemeckis' first live action film since 2000's Cast Away slipped in under the radar to become a sleeper hit with audiences and critics on the strength of three things: Denzel Washington's dense, deep character study of a complex man at the center of an enigmatic disaster, John Gatins' sharp script and basically a kick ass crash scene. Washington has his Oscar for Training Day, but honestly he's got so much momentum right now it could easily take him all the way back to the podium. The industry loves him &, historically at least, Oscar loves on-screen drunks. Another threat keeping the Best Actor race edgy. A win would make him the first black actor with three Oscars.

4. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Who doesn't love Hugh Jackman? The one-&-only embodiment of Wolverine has also effortlessly shown his sensitive (The Fountain) and funny (Kate & Leopold) side, and made a good case for his serious actor credentials in Chris Nolan's The Prestige. He's also in better shape at 44 than most of us will likely ever be. Now he takes the all-singing, much-wretched, ultimately-heroic lead in Tom Hooper's adaptation of the ultimate serious-minded musical, and everyone has been simply waiting to make this his moment, provided he didn't screw it up. And the first semi-reviews from critics and bloggers who have attended early screenings suggest he has done quite the opposite of screw it up. I'm not sure when last a male Actor won for a musical performance, if ever, (if anyone knows, let me know), but if momentum for Les Miserables keeps building, he poses a serious threat for the win. And just imagine what a Jackman win would do for the notoriously uncool award show's ratings.

5. John Hawkes - The Sessions
John Hawkes has become a household name of late (in, you know, indie film and awards-obsessed kinda households) with awesome, celebrated, creepy turns in Winter's Bone and Martha Marcy May Marlene and this year his and Helen Hunt's central performances, as a real-life quadriplegic poet wanting to lose his virginity and a compassionate sex surrogate, respectively, have been riding (no pun intended) a wave of joint acclaim since Sundance that shows no sign of slowing down. Hawkes' performance has repeatedly, and annoyingly (but probably unavoidably) been compared to Daniel Day-Lewis' (first) Oscar-winning performance in My Left Foot, but funnier. It's frustrating to have his performance reduced to an Oscar paint-by-numbers when the strength of his performance is not merely the complexity of his physical limitations, but the great sensitivity and humour he brings to a frankly awkward story. He's got the goods to win, but probably not in a year like this.

That seems like a pretty unshakable top 5 but, if we've learnt anything, it's that nobody knows anything.

The strongest contenders waiting in the wings, are:

6. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
In a career-shifting performance, that good-looking guy from The Hangover and The A Team, plays an obsessive compulsive man moving back in with his parents after a stint in a mental institution, hoping to patch things up with his estranged wife, but faced with a dilemma when he finds himself drawn to Jennifer Lawrence's depressed nymphomaniac instead. Silver Linings Playbook has proven to be an unshakably popular feelgood dramedy with legitimate Best Picture chances (although it would be a shame in a year with such strong contenders). If the film keeps building momentum, so will the chances of it's leading man. And again, the words "Bradley Cooper" will do wonders for the Oscars' TV ratings.

7. Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock
What could be more exciting than the great Sir Anthony Hopkins playing the legendary Alfred Hitchcock? Well, at least 6 other actors, apparently. But still this has to remain a strong contender on the strength of Hopkins' star power, Hitchcock's legend and the humour Hopkins and director Sacha Gervasi bring to the part. It's not an attractive portrait of the great director, and reportedly not a very accurate one either. But that doesn't mean it's not entertaining. Most likely, the attention will be on Helen Mirren as Hitch's largely unsung partner in crime, Alma Reville. Hopkins shows no interest in doing the campaigning thing (why should he?) and in the wake of iconic performances in major Best Picture contenders, his movie and performance seem doomed to obscurity very soon after the inevitable Golden Globe nominations (presuming it contends as a comedy). But anything can happen.

8. Richard Gere - Arbitrage
To be fair, the man has had quite a career, and he's never played the Oscar game, danced the AMPAS dance, had his face in the little squares after a beautiful Actress said "and the nominees are...". And that, together with many reviews declaring this the best work of his career, by far, is the basis of the fairly strong campaign for Richard Gere as Best Actor for his performance in Arbitrage. I haven't seen the film, but the reviews are pretty convincing (especially as I found the trailer very tiresome), and if he can build a strong enough campaign.

And lastly, these dudes really have no chance of getting in, but it should be mentioned that they did contend, on the outskirts:

9. Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
Who wouldn't want to see Bill Murray nominated for playing Teddy Roosevelt? In the same year that Daniel Day-Lewis wins for playing Abraham Lincoln? It seems meant to be, but this has been far too competitive a year and Bill Murray's performance is ultimately too understated, with no wow moments. Also the film kinda tanked. Pity. Still can't wait to see it though.

10. Jean-Louis Trintignant
Don't get me wrong, this could happen, if Michael Haneke's Palme D'Or winning film hits in a big way, but it's highly unlikely. As an elderly, retired music teacher watching his wife succumb to the ravages of old age, Jean-Louis Trintignant really should be an Oscar contender. But that, of course, doesn't mean he will. There are younger, more attractive men turning in more popular performances in movies without subtitles. Again, a pity.

Spielberg's Actors

With Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones charging strongly into the Supporting categories, and Daniel Day-Lewis looking set to win his third richly deserved Oscar, for Spielberg's political epic Lincoln, it leads us to the interesting bit of trivia that no actor has ever won an Oscar for a Spielberg film. Quite something considering his extensive body of work.

So - who could and should have won, who should have been nominated, but wasn't, and who would we have liked to see as contenders that would never have been able to knock down the competition?

Should have Could have Would have been winners:

1. Whoopi Goldberg - The Color Purple (1985)
Although she would have faced strong competition from Meryl Streep (Out of Africa) and Jessica Lange (Sweet Dreams), even if Geraldine Page hadn't taken the top prize, Whoopi's still-classic performance would have made for a fresh and deserving win. Like a slightly more upbeat version of Precious, with a killer final scene, she makes Celie deeply memorable. It's a pity she's never been able to equal the performance.

The Goldberg snub beats the Fiennes snub on the simple logic that her deserving win would additionally have spared us Halle Berry's cringe-worthy Oscar speech (as the first 'black' woman to win Best Actress) & opened up Supporting Actress to be won by the still Oscarless Anette Bening (The Grifters) in 1991 (over Goldberg's winning turn in Ghost).

(Incidentally, fellow Colour Purple nominees Margaret Avery & Oprah Winfrey are both great as well, but it's unlikely either could have taken Supporting Actress. It was Anjelica Huston's year, and her eccentricities are richer than Avery & Winfrey's tears. Non-nominee Danny Glover is on top bastardly form as well, but should have been campaigned as a Supporting Actor - where he could surely have knocked out Eric Roberts - rather than as lead - where he was up against a bunch of respected white dudes.)

2. Ralph Fiennes - Schindler's List (1993)
Honestly, how on earth did he miss this win? A classic, epicly intense villain that has effortlessly stood the test of time. And in the year's big Best Picture winner to boot. Sure it's easy to love Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, but watch the two performances side by side and then hand out an Oscar. It goes to Fiennes. Every time. Ironically, Jones is likely contending for his second Supporting Oscar this year for Spielberg's Lincoln. And Fiennes remains Oscarless.




Should have Could have Would have been contenders:

3. Sean Connery - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
A legendary movie dad, Connery was snubbed by Oscar after comfortably picking up nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assoc & the British Academy Awards for his thoroughly enjoyable comic performance. It's unlikely he could have beat Glory's Denzel Washington for the win, but scratch the frankly superfluous Dan Aykroyd and there's plenty of room in the Supporting Actor list for Connery and his bow tie. Curiously, his win two years before (on his sole career nomination for The Untouchables) didn't seem to count in his favour.

4. Jude Law - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
At the height of his popularity, Jude Law's gigolo robot Joe would have made a solid follow up nomination to his breakthrough as rich young cad in The Talented Mr Ripley, before he seemed to fall out of favour right after finally breaking through to the big time with Cold Mountain. I'd easily have bump Jon Voigt for Law.

5. Samantha Morton - Minority Report (2002)
Tom Cruise & Max Von Sydow are cool & effective, Lois Smith gets her epic moment with some scary plants, but it's Samantha Morton's turn as doomed pre-cog Agatha that really stays with you. There's so much happening on her face, suggesting a whole universe of meaning with her looks of perpetual terror. She had broken into the Oscar race two years before as a lovely mute for Woody Allen in Sweet & Lowdown, and had been nothing but brilliant in between (Jesus' Son, Dreaming of Joseph Lees, Pandaemonium, Morvern Callar). She overcommits to a minor part in Minority Report and the results are splendid, but Oscar did not take notice.

6. Djimon Hounsou - Amistad (1997)
Anthony Hopkins feels a bit like a token nominee and was never going to spoil Robin Williams' (Good Will Hunting) moment, but since this is Spielberg's other slavery film, it would have been decent of the Academy to recognise Hounsou's intense and powerful central performance. He could have bumped Dustin Hoffman's Wag the Dog nomination (as enjoyable as he was, he wouldn't be overly missed).


7. Teri Garr - Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)
Melinda Dillon got the nomination, but Teri Garr is just as good in the earlier half of the film. Nomination or no, neither of them was going to beat Vanessa Redgrave's Julia. Incidentally, the other lauded Encounters performance is Francois Truffaut but, though he gives a solid performance, there's nothing overtly awards-worthy about it other than the fact that he is the great Francois Truffaut.



Close misses:

7. Harrison Ford - Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) 
A broad performance, yes, but an iconic & very well judged one. A nomination as Best Actor? It seems unlikely, but perhaps not such a stretch considering the film's very respectable 8 total nominations, including Best Picture, and 5 wins. Realistically, though, there's no-one he could easily have bumped. Considering the legacy, skill & sentiment behind Henry Fonda's winning performance in On Golden Pond, nothing was going to dismantle him. Every other actor seems pretty much indispensible, outside of, arguably, Dudley Moore in Arthur. But, come to think of it, between Ford & Moore, I'd probably have voted for Moore as well. Sorry Harrison!


8. Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can (2002)
Probably more memorable for being the start of Leonardo DiCaprio's significant comeback, Christopher Walken owns the whole film (along with John Williams' great vintage score) in a tiny performance that kicks total ass. No-one could have played Frank Abagnale Sr the way he did; he imbues his few moments on screen with so much eccentric inspiration & melancholy wisdom, he's infinitely memorable. A deserving nominee, then, but could - and should - he have been a winner? I'd never vote against Chris Cooper (Adaptation) & Walken has his epic Oscar for The Deer Hunter. In any case, if Cooper hadn't won, Ed Harris (The Hours) or Paul Newman (Road to Perdition) would have claimed the prize before Walken even came into the conversation.

9. Ben Kingsley - Schindler's List (1994)
It's hard to imagine how the great Sir Ben Kingsley wasn't nominated for his very touching, unshowy performance in an Oscar milestone film. It's also hard to say, though, who should have bumped for his sake - possibly Pete Postlethwait for In the Name of the Father, but that feels like a different minor injustice, or Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, but he's a little bit iconic in that role. Though it's a pity, Kingsley has had - and will have - plenty other occasions to shine.




10. Frances O'Connor - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
Another great performance in Spielberg's fascinating, odd Sci Fi (a labour of love on behalf of Stanley Kubrick). O'Connor is fantastic and makes a big impact as robot child David's very human mother, but it's hard to think whose place she could have taken. I don't begrudge Jennifer Connelly Oscar for Ron Howard's sentimental & overrated, but still excellent, A Beautiful Mind, and I love all the other nominees, down to Marisa Tomei's sensitive idiosyncrasies in In the Bedroom, and Dame Maggie Smith's ample charms in Gosford Park (lately exploited to breaking point in Downton Abbey). Perhaps I'm resisting change, but I like the line up & don't see space for O'Connor.

11. Robert Shaw - Jaws (1975)
How great would it have been to have Robert Shaw contending for supporting actor? They would have needed a bigger boat.

McConaughey chases legitimacy / Oscars?

After watching him lazily step back for the sake of easy jokes, Kate Hudson and his own torse, it is easy to forget that Matthew McConaughey was once a legitimate, up-and-coming real actor (think A Time to Kill, Amistad, Lone Star, Contact). I had all but written him off, but this year (and next), Matthew McConaughey is back with a vengeance, and chasing legitimacy (and maybe an Oscar).

Last year's Lincoln Lawyer was his calling card back to the world of actual actors, but this year he is impossible to miss, taking a leaf out of Jessica Chastain's 2011 playbook - whether by his turn as sweaty, kinky southern reporter in Lee Daniels' apparently misjudged pulp noir thriller The Paperboy; as spray tanned, veteran stripper and club owner Dallas in Steven Soderbergh's  Magic Mike, as twisted contract killer / cop in William Friedkin's grim small-town thriller Killer Joe, or, on the friendlier side, as Mississippi fugitive telling tall tales to teenagers trying to reunite him with his true love in the awesome Jeff Nichols' Huckleberry Fin-ish Mud, you will notice Matthew McConaughey this year.

And he's not stopping there. Next year, he moves from the American South to the 80s, showing up in Scorsese's period Wall Street drama, The Wolf of Wall Street, opposite Leo DiCaprio, and taking center stage in the true story of an AIDS-suffering electrician smuggling illegal drugs from Mexico to save his life and the lives of thousands of others in The Dallas Buyer's Club. AIDS, weight-loss, real life heroism and medical care issues could be just what he needs to land him on the Oscar podium. Only time will tell, but the man's been working hard for a change and deserves the credit he gets.

VOTE for the Best Best Picture of the 90s

VOTE for the Best of a decade that gave an Oscar to Kevin Costner over Martin Scorsese, ignored Spike Lee entirely & gave top honours to five films that kill off their protagonist. It's the 90s & it's the decade where I started caring about the Oscars, so vote for the Best of the Academy's Best & shake your head in disapproval of their poorer choices.

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I find the Best Actor pattern particularly interesting: two villains, three very sympathetic & physically impaired heroes, two tragic heroes with intense psychological demons & three dramedies, two of which are as tragic as they are funny. Fun stuff. 

VOTE for the Best Best Picture of the 00s

VOTE! For the Best of the (Academy's) Best of the Noughties!

Sure, the Oscars get it wrong as often as they get it right, and some winners go on to big things while others fade into obscurity, but how would the best of the Academy's best fare if competing against each other? You decide:

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In & Out of Character

Leading up to Sunday's Oscar ceremony, check out IMDB's gallery of Oscar nominees "In & Out of Character." A nice idea nicely executed.

Click on the pic to go to the site.

Guild Winners: We have ourselves a race

Three major guilds decided their winners in the past week, shaping the way for the final outcome of the Oscar race. The good news is that, at least in the lead acting categories, we do have an actual race!

Producers Guild of America 

Thomas Langmann wins for producing The Artist, 

basically confirming the trajectory it has been on since Cannes. It is taking the prize, people! 

For animated features, Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy & Steven Spielberg win for producing The Adventures of Tin Tin, not that that will help any on Oscar night, as their film was not nominated.

On TV, Martin Scorsese & co take the Episodic Television Drama prize for Boardwalk Empire, the extensive list of Modern Family producers which I don't care to re-type win for Episodic Television Comedy and Julian Fellowes et al take the Long-form Television prize for Downton Abbey.

Directors Guild of America

Martin Scorsese had an outside chance with Hugo, but Michel Hazanavicius's way to the Oscar podium has been solidly paved with his expected win for The Artist. 

For an American Guild award, this is the second consecutive year that the DGA awarded a foreign director over a viable American option. Which is frankly admirable.

TV-wise, Patty Jenkins wins the Dramatic Series prize for directing The Killing pilot, Robert B Weide takes the Comedic Series prize for Curb Your Enthusiasm episode, Palistinian Chicken & Jon Cassar wins the TV Movie / Mini-series prize for directing The Kennedys.   

Screen Actors Guild of America

The Screen Actors Guild takes things in a slightly different direction than what we saw at the Golden Globes, meaning that we have a race on our hands!

Female Actor in a Leading Role
Viola Davis - The Help

The Golden Globes gave their prize to Meryl Streep (Drama) & Michelle Williams (Musical / Comedy), but with Viola Davis' SAG (& previous Critics' Choice) win, we have a three-legged race on the go. Meryl Streep won the SAG in 2009 for Doubt (the Oscar went to Kate Winslet for The Reader) & has often given strong support to Viola Davis' campaign. The Help has huge Box Office earnings behind it & a big cast of respected actresses, so a Help sweep at SAG was to be expected (it took three in total). At the Oscars, however, it's not just the actors calling the shots and Meryl Streep's third Oscar (her second as Best Actress & her first out of 13 nominations since 1982) is long overdue. The Streep / Davis race is on, and I'm sure it's a bittersweet one for both Actresses. Second runner-up Michelle Williams should start preparing her speech in case a Davis/Streep vote split puts her on the podium as it did Adrien Brody in 2002 - when frontrunners Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) & Daniel Day Lewis (Gangs of New York) cancelled each other out.  

Male Actor in a Leading Role
Jean Dujardin - The Artist


SAG leans comedy & awards Jean Dujardin's charming old-school physical comedy performance, propping him up as a very real contender to George Clooney for The Descendants. My money is on Dujardin getting swept up in the The Artist wave.

Performance by a cast in a Motion Picture
The Help

I don't see this as a sign that The Help could in any way upset The Artist's Oscar chances. Nevertheless an impressive win.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer - The Help


As expected, and all the way to the Oscar podium.

Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christopher Plummer - Beginners


Ditto.

Male Actor in a TV Movie / Mini-series

Paul Giamatti - Too Big to Fail

Female Actor in a TV Movie / Mini-series

Kate Winslet - Mildred Pierce

Male Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire

Female Actor in a Drama Series

Jessica Lange - American Horror Story

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock

Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Betty White - Hot in Cleaveland

Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire

Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Modern Family