It's Meryl vs Viola, again

Meryl Streep reunites with Devil Wears Prada director David Frankel for a relationship comedy opposite Tommy Lee Jones, and everyone is already thinking "Oscar". Fair enough, it is Meryl Streep. Comparatively, this fits in alongside One True Thing, but minus the cancer and plus Something's Gotta Give's middle-aged  sexuality. Are you ready to see Meryl almost do bad things to a banana? I could be more excited if it had a less abysmal title that hadn't already been used once too often.

With another terrible title and potentially wearying premise, Viola Davis continues her bid for an Oscar with Won't Back Down, the story of a determined teacher and mother who risk everything to change their children's inner city school. Davis plays every inspirational teacher ever while Maggie Gyllenhaal does her take on Erin Brockovich-y feistiness. There is reason to hope for more than teeth-gritting sincerity though, as it's made by intriguing Phoebe in Wonderland writer / director Daniel Barnz and co-stars the always great Holly Hunter.

Way too soon to say Oscar, but people are saying it anyway and why not? Being nominated is at least 60% about popularity & marketing.

Awards Tracker - Best Actress

Surprisingly, Tilda Swinton is the biggest nominee so far, with six nominations, and two wins, which should cement her Oscar chances for the challenging We Need to Talk About Kevin. She's followed closely by Michelle Williams in more traditional Oscar-fodder as Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn.


Not the de facto front runner one might expect, Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady is tied with Viola Davis in The Help and Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene with four nominations. Glenn Close took long to join the race with Albert Nobbs, but hit the important three with nominations from the Golden Satellites, Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. She is tied with Charlize Theron in Young Adult, although Theron missed out on the somewhat important Screen Actors Guild nomination.

Indie darlings Felicity Jones in Like Crazy, Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia & Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur round out the multiple nominees, with Jones winning both her bids. Rooney Mara picks up only a single Golden Globe nomination for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but her film was released late, so it could be the start of more to come.

The critics have Michelle Williams far in the lead with eleven nominations and seven wins, followed closely by Meryl Streep with ten nominations, but only three wins. They also threw their weight behind Viola Davis, with eight nominations, as well as Elizabeth Olsen & Tilda Swinton, with seven each.

Kirsten Dunst's three and Charlize Theron's two nominations edge out Glenn Close, who shares her single nomination status with Saoirse Ronan for Hanna, Felicity Jones for Like Crazy, Brit Marling for Another Earth, Anna Paquin for Margaret & Adepero Oduye for Pariah. 

Rooney Mara & Yun Jung-Hee in Poetry lead the single nominees by winning their respective Critics nominations, leaving Glen Close in their wake, at least from the Critics' perspective.

So Williams and Streep are locks, Davis is guaranteed a deserved, career & political nomination and Swinton seems positioned to take the home stretch safely, which leaves just one spot for Theron, Close, Mara & Olsen to vie for. It doesn't feel like anyone else - including Dunst & Colman - has enough traction to knock them out of the race.

Best Actress race gets meaty

Michelle Williams gets glowing early reviews; Viola Davis gets the Elle Women in Hollywood award, and gives one heck of an acceptance speech; Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeff Wells raises $2000 to promote Olivia Colman in Tryannosaur with an early screening; & Elizabeth Olsen hits the Today show, briefly but eloquently.

This year's Best Actress is a very exciting one indeed, with far too many deserving performances getting due notice. The final five should be a strong five, but There Will Be Blogger outcry when a handful of deserving actresses are inevitably 'overlooked'. My hope is that the Oscar precursors will keep their nominations diverse and not settle on a comfortable five to push all the way to the Oscars. Diversity not only keeps the race unpredictable, and forces Oscar voters to think for themselves, it also means that in retrospect a wider range of performances will have received recognition.