Best Actor - in Trailers

The big dogs:

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Denzel Washington - Flight

John Hawkes - The Sessions

The guys in the wings:

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock

Richard Gere - Arbitrage

The Dark Horses:

Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Actor

It's just a freaking strong & frankly exciting year for Best Actor with too many real contenders for the five available slots. But more just the great performances that will inevitably be snubbed, this is also a year with at least four strong front runners to win, which means we have ourselves a real race (for now at least).

1. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln 
Daniel Day-Lewis still leads the race for now as honest Abe in Spielberg's much-celebrated, much-watched (good combination) biopic. He walks a touchy line of impersonation with grandiose speeches and a weird voice which could easily add up to hammy scenery chewing. But this is Daniel Day-Lewis and he has now pretty much stepped up to being the greatest actor alive. For now. Like the very best of impersonation performances (think Helen Mirren in The Queen), Day-Lewis inhabits his character, living & breathing but never over-playing him. Audiences and critics have taken to both the skill of his performance and the venerable stature of his character and, in a significant political year for America, his performance already feels a little bit iconic. When you're the frontrunner for your third lead Oscar, and no-one begrudges you, you've done something right. Incidentally, if he wins, he joins the ranks of:

• Ingrid Bergman - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)
• Meryl Streep - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)
• Jack Nicholson - 3 wins (2 lead, 1 supporting)

But still stands back for Katherine Hepburn with 4 wins (all lead).

2. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Critics are divided on Paul Thomas Anderson's latest masterpiece, particularly around what it means and whether it means anything at all, but the one thing everyone seemed to uniformly agree on was that the Oscar already had Joaqion Phoenix's name on it. That was until Lincoln came along, and Phoenix called the Oscars "bullshit" and "the worst carrot I've ever tasted". To be fair, he was referring mostly to the horror of campaigning for an Oscar, which it's easy to agree can get ugly, and he did later try to retract his comments or at least place them in context. Does this negate his Oscar chances? With so many strong contenders, it probably does take his name solidly off the Oscar, but given the strength of his performance as an odd, wild alcoholic destructive finding refuge under the wing of Phillip Seymour Hoffman's titular Master, he shouldn't have much trouble still getting nominated. (as a side note, I see the ugliness and ludicrousness of campaigning people and putting them in competition with each other, and of course being acknowledged by your industry as the "best" is as weird as it must be flattering, but the prestige of the Oscars does keep the industry actors are privileged to work in going and, if nothing else, it means a lot to the bottom line of the movie they signed up for & for the fans who fell in love with it, one of which must surely be the reason they do it all in the first place).

3. Denzel Washington - Flight
Robert Zemeckis' first live action film since 2000's Cast Away slipped in under the radar to become a sleeper hit with audiences and critics on the strength of three things: Denzel Washington's dense, deep character study of a complex man at the center of an enigmatic disaster, John Gatins' sharp script and basically a kick ass crash scene. Washington has his Oscar for Training Day, but honestly he's got so much momentum right now it could easily take him all the way back to the podium. The industry loves him &, historically at least, Oscar loves on-screen drunks. Another threat keeping the Best Actor race edgy. A win would make him the first black actor with three Oscars.

4. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Who doesn't love Hugh Jackman? The one-&-only embodiment of Wolverine has also effortlessly shown his sensitive (The Fountain) and funny (Kate & Leopold) side, and made a good case for his serious actor credentials in Chris Nolan's The Prestige. He's also in better shape at 44 than most of us will likely ever be. Now he takes the all-singing, much-wretched, ultimately-heroic lead in Tom Hooper's adaptation of the ultimate serious-minded musical, and everyone has been simply waiting to make this his moment, provided he didn't screw it up. And the first semi-reviews from critics and bloggers who have attended early screenings suggest he has done quite the opposite of screw it up. I'm not sure when last a male Actor won for a musical performance, if ever, (if anyone knows, let me know), but if momentum for Les Miserables keeps building, he poses a serious threat for the win. And just imagine what a Jackman win would do for the notoriously uncool award show's ratings.

5. John Hawkes - The Sessions
John Hawkes has become a household name of late (in, you know, indie film and awards-obsessed kinda households) with awesome, celebrated, creepy turns in Winter's Bone and Martha Marcy May Marlene and this year his and Helen Hunt's central performances, as a real-life quadriplegic poet wanting to lose his virginity and a compassionate sex surrogate, respectively, have been riding (no pun intended) a wave of joint acclaim since Sundance that shows no sign of slowing down. Hawkes' performance has repeatedly, and annoyingly (but probably unavoidably) been compared to Daniel Day-Lewis' (first) Oscar-winning performance in My Left Foot, but funnier. It's frustrating to have his performance reduced to an Oscar paint-by-numbers when the strength of his performance is not merely the complexity of his physical limitations, but the great sensitivity and humour he brings to a frankly awkward story. He's got the goods to win, but probably not in a year like this.

That seems like a pretty unshakable top 5 but, if we've learnt anything, it's that nobody knows anything.

The strongest contenders waiting in the wings, are:

6. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
In a career-shifting performance, that good-looking guy from The Hangover and The A Team, plays an obsessive compulsive man moving back in with his parents after a stint in a mental institution, hoping to patch things up with his estranged wife, but faced with a dilemma when he finds himself drawn to Jennifer Lawrence's depressed nymphomaniac instead. Silver Linings Playbook has proven to be an unshakably popular feelgood dramedy with legitimate Best Picture chances (although it would be a shame in a year with such strong contenders). If the film keeps building momentum, so will the chances of it's leading man. And again, the words "Bradley Cooper" will do wonders for the Oscars' TV ratings.

7. Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock
What could be more exciting than the great Sir Anthony Hopkins playing the legendary Alfred Hitchcock? Well, at least 6 other actors, apparently. But still this has to remain a strong contender on the strength of Hopkins' star power, Hitchcock's legend and the humour Hopkins and director Sacha Gervasi bring to the part. It's not an attractive portrait of the great director, and reportedly not a very accurate one either. But that doesn't mean it's not entertaining. Most likely, the attention will be on Helen Mirren as Hitch's largely unsung partner in crime, Alma Reville. Hopkins shows no interest in doing the campaigning thing (why should he?) and in the wake of iconic performances in major Best Picture contenders, his movie and performance seem doomed to obscurity very soon after the inevitable Golden Globe nominations (presuming it contends as a comedy). But anything can happen.

8. Richard Gere - Arbitrage
To be fair, the man has had quite a career, and he's never played the Oscar game, danced the AMPAS dance, had his face in the little squares after a beautiful Actress said "and the nominees are...". And that, together with many reviews declaring this the best work of his career, by far, is the basis of the fairly strong campaign for Richard Gere as Best Actor for his performance in Arbitrage. I haven't seen the film, but the reviews are pretty convincing (especially as I found the trailer very tiresome), and if he can build a strong enough campaign.

And lastly, these dudes really have no chance of getting in, but it should be mentioned that they did contend, on the outskirts:

9. Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
Who wouldn't want to see Bill Murray nominated for playing Teddy Roosevelt? In the same year that Daniel Day-Lewis wins for playing Abraham Lincoln? It seems meant to be, but this has been far too competitive a year and Bill Murray's performance is ultimately too understated, with no wow moments. Also the film kinda tanked. Pity. Still can't wait to see it though.

10. Jean-Louis Trintignant
Don't get me wrong, this could happen, if Michael Haneke's Palme D'Or winning film hits in a big way, but it's highly unlikely. As an elderly, retired music teacher watching his wife succumb to the ravages of old age, Jean-Louis Trintignant really should be an Oscar contender. But that, of course, doesn't mean he will. There are younger, more attractive men turning in more popular performances in movies without subtitles. Again, a pity.

Spielberg's Actors

With Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones charging strongly into the Supporting categories, and Daniel Day-Lewis looking set to win his third richly deserved Oscar, for Spielberg's political epic Lincoln, it leads us to the interesting bit of trivia that no actor has ever won an Oscar for a Spielberg film. Quite something considering his extensive body of work.

So - who could and should have won, who should have been nominated, but wasn't, and who would we have liked to see as contenders that would never have been able to knock down the competition?

Should have Could have Would have been winners:

1. Whoopi Goldberg - The Color Purple (1985)
Although she would have faced strong competition from Meryl Streep (Out of Africa) and Jessica Lange (Sweet Dreams), even if Geraldine Page hadn't taken the top prize, Whoopi's still-classic performance would have made for a fresh and deserving win. Like a slightly more upbeat version of Precious, with a killer final scene, she makes Celie deeply memorable. It's a pity she's never been able to equal the performance.

The Goldberg snub beats the Fiennes snub on the simple logic that her deserving win would additionally have spared us Halle Berry's cringe-worthy Oscar speech (as the first 'black' woman to win Best Actress) & opened up Supporting Actress to be won by the still Oscarless Anette Bening (The Grifters) in 1991 (over Goldberg's winning turn in Ghost).

(Incidentally, fellow Colour Purple nominees Margaret Avery & Oprah Winfrey are both great as well, but it's unlikely either could have taken Supporting Actress. It was Anjelica Huston's year, and her eccentricities are richer than Avery & Winfrey's tears. Non-nominee Danny Glover is on top bastardly form as well, but should have been campaigned as a Supporting Actor - where he could surely have knocked out Eric Roberts - rather than as lead - where he was up against a bunch of respected white dudes.)

2. Ralph Fiennes - Schindler's List (1993)
Honestly, how on earth did he miss this win? A classic, epicly intense villain that has effortlessly stood the test of time. And in the year's big Best Picture winner to boot. Sure it's easy to love Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, but watch the two performances side by side and then hand out an Oscar. It goes to Fiennes. Every time. Ironically, Jones is likely contending for his second Supporting Oscar this year for Spielberg's Lincoln. And Fiennes remains Oscarless.




Should have Could have Would have been contenders:

3. Sean Connery - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
A legendary movie dad, Connery was snubbed by Oscar after comfortably picking up nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assoc & the British Academy Awards for his thoroughly enjoyable comic performance. It's unlikely he could have beat Glory's Denzel Washington for the win, but scratch the frankly superfluous Dan Aykroyd and there's plenty of room in the Supporting Actor list for Connery and his bow tie. Curiously, his win two years before (on his sole career nomination for The Untouchables) didn't seem to count in his favour.

4. Jude Law - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
At the height of his popularity, Jude Law's gigolo robot Joe would have made a solid follow up nomination to his breakthrough as rich young cad in The Talented Mr Ripley, before he seemed to fall out of favour right after finally breaking through to the big time with Cold Mountain. I'd easily have bump Jon Voigt for Law.

5. Samantha Morton - Minority Report (2002)
Tom Cruise & Max Von Sydow are cool & effective, Lois Smith gets her epic moment with some scary plants, but it's Samantha Morton's turn as doomed pre-cog Agatha that really stays with you. There's so much happening on her face, suggesting a whole universe of meaning with her looks of perpetual terror. She had broken into the Oscar race two years before as a lovely mute for Woody Allen in Sweet & Lowdown, and had been nothing but brilliant in between (Jesus' Son, Dreaming of Joseph Lees, Pandaemonium, Morvern Callar). She overcommits to a minor part in Minority Report and the results are splendid, but Oscar did not take notice.

6. Djimon Hounsou - Amistad (1997)
Anthony Hopkins feels a bit like a token nominee and was never going to spoil Robin Williams' (Good Will Hunting) moment, but since this is Spielberg's other slavery film, it would have been decent of the Academy to recognise Hounsou's intense and powerful central performance. He could have bumped Dustin Hoffman's Wag the Dog nomination (as enjoyable as he was, he wouldn't be overly missed).


7. Teri Garr - Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)
Melinda Dillon got the nomination, but Teri Garr is just as good in the earlier half of the film. Nomination or no, neither of them was going to beat Vanessa Redgrave's Julia. Incidentally, the other lauded Encounters performance is Francois Truffaut but, though he gives a solid performance, there's nothing overtly awards-worthy about it other than the fact that he is the great Francois Truffaut.



Close misses:

7. Harrison Ford - Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) 
A broad performance, yes, but an iconic & very well judged one. A nomination as Best Actor? It seems unlikely, but perhaps not such a stretch considering the film's very respectable 8 total nominations, including Best Picture, and 5 wins. Realistically, though, there's no-one he could easily have bumped. Considering the legacy, skill & sentiment behind Henry Fonda's winning performance in On Golden Pond, nothing was going to dismantle him. Every other actor seems pretty much indispensible, outside of, arguably, Dudley Moore in Arthur. But, come to think of it, between Ford & Moore, I'd probably have voted for Moore as well. Sorry Harrison!


8. Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can (2002)
Probably more memorable for being the start of Leonardo DiCaprio's significant comeback, Christopher Walken owns the whole film (along with John Williams' great vintage score) in a tiny performance that kicks total ass. No-one could have played Frank Abagnale Sr the way he did; he imbues his few moments on screen with so much eccentric inspiration & melancholy wisdom, he's infinitely memorable. A deserving nominee, then, but could - and should - he have been a winner? I'd never vote against Chris Cooper (Adaptation) & Walken has his epic Oscar for The Deer Hunter. In any case, if Cooper hadn't won, Ed Harris (The Hours) or Paul Newman (Road to Perdition) would have claimed the prize before Walken even came into the conversation.

9. Ben Kingsley - Schindler's List (1994)
It's hard to imagine how the great Sir Ben Kingsley wasn't nominated for his very touching, unshowy performance in an Oscar milestone film. It's also hard to say, though, who should have bumped for his sake - possibly Pete Postlethwait for In the Name of the Father, but that feels like a different minor injustice, or Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive, but he's a little bit iconic in that role. Though it's a pity, Kingsley has had - and will have - plenty other occasions to shine.




10. Frances O'Connor - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
Another great performance in Spielberg's fascinating, odd Sci Fi (a labour of love on behalf of Stanley Kubrick). O'Connor is fantastic and makes a big impact as robot child David's very human mother, but it's hard to think whose place she could have taken. I don't begrudge Jennifer Connelly Oscar for Ron Howard's sentimental & overrated, but still excellent, A Beautiful Mind, and I love all the other nominees, down to Marisa Tomei's sensitive idiosyncrasies in In the Bedroom, and Dame Maggie Smith's ample charms in Gosford Park (lately exploited to breaking point in Downton Abbey). Perhaps I'm resisting change, but I like the line up & don't see space for O'Connor.

11. Robert Shaw - Jaws (1975)
How great would it have been to have Robert Shaw contending for supporting actor? They would have needed a bigger boat.