Year end awards are out and it's easy to lose track. I have been a nerd and tracked all the nominees and winners to date on a tidy spreadsheet, for your cinematic data pleasure. Yellow is a win, grey is a nomination, orange is a runner-up win & pinkish is an honourable mention or "special" award like "breakthrough performer."
The biggest nominees so far are Jean Dujardin in The Artist & George Clooney in The Descendants, with six nominations each, followed by Michael Fassbender - getting plenty of mainstream acceptance for Shame, Ryan Gosling in Drive, Brad Pitt in Moneyball & Leonardo DiCaprio in J Edgar, with four each and, surprisingly, Demian Bichir in A Better Life, with three.
Technically that would make them the Oscar frontrunners, but somehow Gosling, DiCaprio and Bichir don't feel quite like locks yet. Definitely not Gosling.
Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, Woody Harrelson in Rampart & Brendan Gleeson in The Guard show up with two nods each and Gary Oldman, some more Ryan Gosling, Owen Wilson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Peter Mullan, Tom Hardy, Jacob Wysocki, Mikael Persbrandt, Michel Piccoli & Andre Wilms round it out with one nomination per head.
The critics sing a slightly different tune, with Fassbender by far in the lead at eleven critics nominations, three wins and two runner up wins, a strategy that probably got him onto Golden Globe and Critics Choice ballots but, unfortunately, not the Screen Actors Guild, which still makes his Oscar nomination a maybe. They back Clooney too, with ten nods, followed by Michael Shannon, Brad Pitt and Jean Dujardin showing up nine times each. They tried to push some love for Gary Oldman in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but not enough and it didn't take.
Only a mild showing for Woody Harrelson, Paul Giamatti in Win Win, Ralph Fiennes in Coriolanus, Gosling in Drive and Brendan Gleeson.
Ultimately, there are still some awards to roll in, and the Academy can always pull in their own surprises, but for now, Jean Dujardin, George Clooney and Brad Pitt are locks, Fassbender is on a winning trajectory and probably either DiCaprio, Bichir or Shannon will fill in the fifth place.