I've been meaning to get to these for ages, but in the final moments before this year's nominees are announced, let me take a stab at predicting the 83rd annual academy awards:
Best Picture:
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Black Swan
The Fighter
127 Hours
Winter's Bone
The Town
Alternate:
The Kids Are All Right
I decided the praise & multiple nominations for Winter's Bone and The Town trump long-time favourite frontrunner. I have also had to eat my words about The Fighter. It's so in.
Best Director:
David Fincher - The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Alternates:
The Coen Brothers - True Grit
David O'Russell - The Fighter
Debra Granik - Winter's Bone
(Argh! How could I vote against the Coens?! I just don't see any of the others missing. 127 Hours trumps because it is such a 'Director's movie'...)
Best Actress:
Anette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Leslie Manville - Another Year
Alternates:
Julianne Moore - The Kids are All Right
Noomi Rapace - Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Manville has been a bit overlooked, but I'm putting my money her. I think the strength of her performance will come through. Any of the 3 alternates would be awesome as well.
There is also an outside chance that Hailee Steinfeld breaks out of the supporting catagory & steals the 5th Best Actress slot, but I'm not betting on it.
Best Actor:
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Robert DuVall - Get Low
Alternates:
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Leonardo DiCaprio - Inception
Javier Bardem is out, although I wish he wasn't. Leonardo DiCaprio is a long long shot. Between Robert DuVall & Ryan Gosling it's neck on neck, but I'm going with the seasoned veteran in the less depressing flick... But I would be happier if it were Gosling.
Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Alternates:
Mila Kunis - Black Swan
Barbara Hershey - Black Swan
Mila Kunis feels like such a sure thing right now, although she shouldn't, but I'm voting against her. Let's see.
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Mark Ruffallo - The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Alternates:
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
I'm pretty convinced of my 5, but if anyone is gonna break in, it's gonna be John Hawkes.
Best Original Screenplay:
Inception
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan
Another Year
Alternates:
Blue Valentine
The Fighter
Four Lions
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
127 Hours
Winter's Bone
Alternates:
The Town
The Ghost Writer
Best Editing:
Inception
The Social Network
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Alternates:
The King's Speech
True Grit
Shutter Island
The Town
Shutter Island deserves a spot, but is too off the radar (since Editing is considered to be so closely linked to Best Director). Perhaps I am foolish to exclude The King's Speech, but these 5 make the most sense to me.
Cinematography:
Black Swan
True Grit
Inception
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Alternates:
127 Hours
How do you vote against 127 Hours? But who to exclude? Here, I think the class of The King's Speech will beat the flash of 127 Hours.
Best Art Direction:
Inception
Black Swan
True Grit
The King's Speech
Alice in Wonderland
Alternates:
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Shutter Island
Wish there was space for Shutter Island.
Original Score:
Inception
The Social Network
The King's Speech
127 Hours
Black Swan
Alternates:
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
True Grit
Shutter Island
Alternates:
Get Low
Made in Dagenham
Robin Hood
Best Make Up:
The Fighter
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Alternates:
Jonah Hex
Barney's Version
Best Visual Effects:
Inception
Tron: Legacy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Alice in Wonderland
Iron Man 2
Best Sound Mixing:
Inception
Black Swan
True Grit
127 Hours
The King's Speech
Alternates:
Tron: Legacy
The Social Network
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Toy Story 3
Best Sound Editing:
Inception
True Grit
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Alternates:
Black Swan
Best Animated Feature:
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Alternates:
Despicable Me
Tangled
Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful (Mexico)
Life, Above All (South Africa)
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Outside the Law (Algeria)
Alternates:
Dogtooth (Greece)
Confessions (Japan)
Tambien La Lluvia (Spain)
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